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Tekken Casino Coming To EVO 2014, Community Event On July 11 & 12 In The Westgate Las Vegas Hotel & Casino

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61.8 Million Dollar Record Month!

How and Why? The Vegas Books Broke the All-Time Net Profit Record
The Nevada Gaming Control Board just released the month of November's overall handle(total amount wagers) and overall net profit(total amount made) on all Nevada sportsbooks. Nevada sports books won more money in November than any other month in the state's 50-plus-year sports betting history. Las Vegas sportsbooks won a net $61.8 million in November, beating the previous mark of $56.4 million set in September 2018.
A total of $609.6 million was wagered with Nevada sportsbooks, Nevada casinos are operating at reduced capacity because of the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, the amount casinos won on sports betting in November topped the amount won on blackjack ($58.1 million) in a month for the first time ever. (Keep in mind blackjack has one of the smallest house advantages, Blackjack at a 1% to 1.5% hold% or house edge).
So 609 million dollars wagered last month and they had a net profit of 61.8 million. That’s roughly a 10% hold for the sports books. (To learn more about hold % there is a in-depth lesson on this topic that was done in October of last year in the #Betting-Advice channel)
609 million wagers, close to 62 million made 🤔 how is that possible when making a wager at -110 gives the house a 4% to 4.5% hold. Nevada sports books doubled their hold% last month. Remember, NBA just started 2 weeks ago and College Hoops started at the end of November so the sports books really only had NFL and College football. So again, how the hell did they make so much money!
For starters, NFL underdogs went 42-28 against the spread in November, that had to have helped the sports books because the betting public typically bets favorites. But I’m sure there have been many other months where underdogs did well but the sports books couldn’t claim a record of net profit like they just did.
Vice president for the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas “I’d say 90 percent of the largest NFL decisions went our way in November, including some that were among our biggest wins ever." He went on to say “two games stood out in November for us,
Everyone bet Tampa, and that really capped one of the biggest Sundays we've ever had," New Orleans Saints' 38-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov. 8. The New England Patriots' 23-17 upset of the Baltimore Ravens on Nov. 15 also produced a significant win for the SuperBook, He said.
Ok so the sports books had a few big decisions go their way but again there have been months in history where upsets happen but why was this past November the all-time record breaking month for sports books and a net profit of a 10% hold.
We know betting a game at -110 only has roughly a 4% house edge. Guess what has a 10% house edge, parlays. Yup, parlays give the sports book a house edge of 10% almost double that of a straight bet. It’s simple math really, you have to win two bets to win and that’s just for the standard 2 team parlay.
There are many people who believe this past November month’s record is just the beginning and that records will continue to be shattered even during a pandemic. The reason is simple, there are a lot more sports bettors betting right now and choosing parlays rather than the standard straight bets. This is doubling the house advantage. The sports books are all celebrating because they know more bettors will continue to bet parlays and that just means a greater house advantage and makes them a mathematical certainty to win over the long term.
If you want to make your bookie rich or the company who’s website you bet on even richer, continue to bet parlays. If you want to learn how to bet smarter and avoid traps by the sports books and how to avoid being a sucker join The Betting Network. There’s no secret trick or strategy, you must put in effort and time, just like with most things in this world -you get out what you put in-.
DM me for more information on how to join the Betting Network Discord community.
Thanks
@TBN_Lefty @TheBettingNetwork
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Updated Westgate Analysis...

Here are my updated findings in my weekly analysis of performance in the Westgate competition. I get the sense that there is not much of an appetite for it, but I find it incredibly interesting and I suppose I will make this post until you all tell me to go away.
For those that do not know, the Westgate competition is a pretty popular pick'em competition offered by the Westgate Casino Hotel in Las Vegas. Each week, I have been comparing the performance of those leading the competition against those losing the competition to see if there is any evidence that serious betters can reliably beat chance performance over time. You can see more details about this in my previous posts.
A table summarizing my findings can be found here.
Comparison Groups: "Leaders": Those in the top-50ish of the standings (YTD pick accuracy above 70%) "Losers": Those in the bottom-50ish of the standings (YTD pick accuracy under 30%)
Metrics: Consensus Performance: A consensus pick refers to each game in which the majority of the comparison group sided with the pick. This means, the best a group can perform for the week is 16-0. Pick Performance: This is examining the number of bettors on the right side of the pick within each group. This means, the best a group can perform for the week is ~250-0.
WEEKLY FINDINGS: Week-2: The leaders beat the losers in consensus picks (50% to 43%) and overall picks (53% to 45%) Week-3: The losers beat the leaders in consensus picks (50% to 33% and overall picks (47% to 39%) Week-4: The losers beat the leaders in consensus picks (46% to 41%) and overall picks (48% to 45%) Week-5: The losers beat the leaders in consensus picks (67% to 58%) and overall picks (61% to 59%)
YTD FINDINGS: The losers have beaten the leaders in consensus picks (50% to 46% and overall picks (50% to 49%)
CONCLUSION: I think this is pretty compelling evidence that most of us have no ability to beat chance levels when picking against NFL spreads. So far, I have looked at 1,800 picks made by serious gamblers with significant money on the line, and those who had performed at very high levels (70%+ hit-rate) failed to (a) beat a coin-toss strategy or (b) beat a group of terrible bettors. The losers have won the past 3 weeks.
It is still early in the season. Perhaps the cream will rise to the top at some point. But I have a hunch that even going into Week-17, a bettor who has hit at a remarkable rate cannot be reliably counted on to hit above chance levels the following week. We'll see.
submitted by iscurred to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Nevada/Las Vegas minimums (COVID Edition) part 5

It was getting really tedious to edit a post with over 100 casinos in it. So I'm breaking it up to Nevada casinos and non-Nevada casinos.
If you are reporting about a casino, could you please try to include the following:
The more information we have, the better off we will be.
We all know that tables can change rapidly. I saw a table go from 25 to 15 to 100 at the Flamingo in the course of a few hours. I'll try to keep the mins what is reported the most and add other information in the comments like "found this table at $5 on graveyard shift" so people konw that isn't the norm
These tables can be a pain to maintain, so please provide as much information as possible. An informed roller is a beter roller.
Vegas Strip Casnio WeekDay Min WeekNight Min WeekendMin WeeknightMin MaxOdds Field Pay Sidebet Dividers/Per Side Last Update Comments
Aria 25 25 25 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 10/27
Ballys 10 15 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/3
Bellagio 15 25 25 50 Unknown Unknown Unknown Yes 9/3
Caesars 25 25-50 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 8/25
Cosmo 25-50 50-100 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 8/22
Cromwell 10 10 15 15 100X Unknown ATS Unknown 11/24
Encore 10 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Yes, on some tables 8/12
Excalibur 10 10 10 15 3x4x5x Unknown Unknown Unknown 11/24 crapless is usually $10. Bubble craps $5
Flamingo 10-15 15-25 Unknown 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 9/29 $100 table at times.
Harrah's 15 25 25 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 8/22
Linq 15 15 Unknown 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 8/22
Luxor 10 10 15 15 3x4x5x Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Updated 9/13
Mandalay Bay 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
MGM Grand 10 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Yes Unkown
Mirage 15 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Yes 9/29
NY/NY 15 15-25 15 15-25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Yes 10/27
Osheas Unknown 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Paris 15 15 15 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 11/9
Park MGM 10 15 15 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 11/6
Sahara 5 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 8/15
Strat 10 10 10 25 10X Unknown Unknown No 11/24
Treasure Island 15 15 15 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/4
Tropicana 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 11/24
Venetian 25 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 8/22
Wynn 10 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Yes, on some tables 10/1
Downtown WeekDay Min WeekNight Min WeekendMin WeeknightMin MaxOdds Field Pay Sidebet Dividers/Per Side Last Update Comments
Binions 5 10 5 10 5X Unknown None Unknown 11/14 Binions had $5 table several times (opens at 10)
California 10 10 10 10 2X Unknown None Unknown 10/27 Tables open at 11AM
Circa 15 25 15 25 3/4/5X Unknown Unknown Unknown 11/2 $10 tables in the mornings have been reported.
The D 15 15 15 15-25 10X Unknown ATS No glass Updated 9/4
Downtown Grand 10 10 10 Unknown 10X Unknown Unknown Unknown 11/14 Table opens at noon.
El Cortez 10 10 10 10 10X Unknown None Yes, some tables 9/4
Jerrys Nugget 3 3 3 3 Unknown Unknown ATS 3/None 10/27
Four Queens 5 10 5 10 5X Unknown Unknown No 11/14 $5 tables can be found on some days
Fremont 10 10 10 Unknown 2X None Unknown No 8/10
Golden Gate 10-15 15 15 Unknown 10X Unknown ATS No 8/28 (GG has been 15 some mornings dropping to 10 later in the day)
Golden Nugget 10-15 10 Unknown 3/4/5X Unknown Unknown Unknown No 8/18 $15 with one table open on 8/18
Plaza 10 10 Unknown Unknown 10X Unknown None No 9/4
OffStrip Casnio WeekDay Min WeekNight Min WeekendMin WeeknightMin MaxOdds Field Pay Sidebet Dividers/Per Side Last Update Comments
Aliante 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Boulder Station 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Cannery 5 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown Firebet 4 per side 8/31
Ellis Island 5 5 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 8/17 Craps table opens up at 10am and its 5 dollars 90% of the time
Gold Coast 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/16
Green Valley Ranch 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
M Resort 10 10 10 10 3x4x5x Unknown Unknown No 3/side 11/24
The Orleans 10 15 10 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/16
Palace Station 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown ATS And Firebet Unknown 9/17
Red Rock 10 15 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 8/14
Sahara 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 11/24
Sams Town 15 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 8/15 1 table
South Point 5 5 5 10 2X Unknown None No 10/27
Strat 5 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Suncoast 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown No 10/6
Sunset Station 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Westgate 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 8/24
OtherNV Casnio WeekDay Min WeekNight Min WeekendMin WeeknightMin MaxOdds Field Pay Sidebet Dividers/Per Side Last Update Comments
Cactus Pete's (Jackpot) 5 5 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/29
Aquariums (Laughlin) 5 5 10 10 Unknown Unknown ATS No 9/29
Edgewater (Laughlin) 10 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 9/29
Gold Nugget (Laughlin) 5 5 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/29 Opened at noon
Harrahs (Laughlin) 10 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown No 9/29
Tropicana (Laughlin) 10 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 9/29 Opened at 6PM on weekeday
Atlantis (Reno) 5/10 5/10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown SharpShooter Unknown 9/29 3 tables on weekends
Cal Neva (Reno) 5 5 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown ATS Unknown 9/12
Eldorado (Reno) 5 10 10 25 Unknown Unknown Fire Unknown 9/12
Grand Sierra (Reno) 15 15-25 15 25 Unknown Unknown ATS Unknown 9/29
The Nuggett (Reno) 5 5 5 5 Unknown Unknown Fire Unknown 8/22
Peppermill (Reno) 5 5 10 10 Unknown Unknown none Unknown 3 craps tables
Sands (Reno) 5 5 5 5 Unknown Unknown none Unknown 8/22
Silver Legacy (Reno) 10 25 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Fire Unknown
Western Village (Reno) 1 1 1 1 Unknown Unknown None Unknown 8/22
Hard Rock (Tahoe) 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Harrahs (Tahoe) 10 10 25 25 ATS Unknown Unknown Unknown 10/14
Harveys (Tahoe) 10 10 15 15 ATS and Fire Unknown Unknown Unknown 10/14
Montbleu (Tahoe) 10 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown
Nugget (Wendover) 5 5 5 5 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 7/31
Peppermill (Wendover) 5 5 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 7/31
Rainbow (Wendover) 5 5 10 10 Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown 7/31
Part 1. It's getting buried so I figured we would make a new one.
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
submitted by necrochaos to Craps [link] [comments]

Westgate SuperContest Top 5 Consensus Picks

Somebody used to do this back in the day and the record was noteworthy in the positive, I don't remember details but figured I'd toss it up in case anyone is interested.
Full list of picks can be found here: https://www.westgateresorts.com/hotels/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-resort-casino/supercontest-selections/
Chiefs
Packers
49ers
Giants
Eagles
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Forecasting Westgate Pick Performance

For those that do not know, the Westgate competition is a pretty popular pick'em competition offered by the Westgate Casino Hotel in Las Vegas. Each week, ~1,200 bettors make 5 picks against the spread. These picks are posted to the competition website on Saturdays, allowing for nerds like myself to identify whether or not bettors have any true ability to pick NFL games against the spread. Since the buy-in to the competition is a relatively sizeable $1,500 and the jackpots are in the millions, it's a good opportunity to access a large collection of picks made by arguably serious gamblers. Further, the standings for the competition are updated each week, so you can compare the best bettors against the worst regarding their performance the following week. This is exactly what I have been doing for the past 3 weeks.
Each week since Week-2, I have been pulling data from this website on Saturdays to track their performance the following Sunday. I know that this data has been pulled in the past by various sources who have shown that bettors at large mostly suck at picking against the spread. However, to my knowledge, these are usually summarized in aggregate - that is, the performance of all 1,200 bettors are pooled together. What I want to do is determine if bettors who have performed at a high level (e.g., 80% accuracy or better) can outperform bettors who have performed at a low level (e.g., 20% accuracy or lower) the following week.
A table summarizing my findings can be found here.
Comparison Groups: "Leaders": Those in the top-50ish of the standings (YTD pick accuracy above 80%) "Losers": Those in the bottom-50ish of the standings (YTD pick accuracy under 20%)
Metrics: Consensus Performance: A consensus pick refers to each game in which the majority of the comparison group sided with the pick. This means, the best a group can perform for the week is 16-0. Pick Performance: This is examining the number of bettors on the right side of the pick within each group. This means, the best a group can perform for the week is ~250-0.
WEEKLY FINDINGS: Week-2: The leaders beat the losers in consensus picks (50% to 43%) and overall picks (53% to 45%) Week-3: The losers beat the leaders in consensus picks (50% to 33% and overall picks (47% to 39%) Week-4: The losers beat the leaders in consensus picks (46% to 41%) and overall picks (48% to 45%)
YTD FINDINGS: The losers have beaten the leaders in consensus picks (46% to 41% and overall picks (48% to 45%)
CONCLUSION: I think this is pretty compelling evidence that most of us have no ability to beat chance levels when picking against NFL spreads. So far, I have looked at 1,400 picks made by serious gamblers with significant money on the line, and those who had performed at very high levels (80%+ hit-rate) failed to (a) beat a coin-toss strategy or (b) beat a group of terrible bettors.
It is still early in the season. Perhaps the cream will rise to the top at some point. But I have a hunch that even going into Week-17, a bettor who has hit at a remarkable rate cannot be reliably counted on to hit above chance levels the following week. We'll see.
submitted by iscurred to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Nevada/Las Vegas minimums (COVID Edition)

It was getting really tedious to edit a post with over 100 casinos in it. So I'm breaking it up to Nevada casinos and non-Nevada casinos.
On a side note, heading to Vegas on Thursday. I'll try to write a trip report and update the minimums as I can. I'm there 9 days and We will be hitting more than 10 casinos, so I expect to be busy.
Without further ado:
Last update: 9/29
Vegas Strip Casino Day Min Night Min Weekend Day Weekend Night Dividers Comments
Aria 10 15-25 Unknown Unknown No Updated 8/25
Ballys 10 15 10 Unknown 2 tables Updated 9/3
Bellagio 15 25 25 50 Yes, all tables Updated 9/3
Caesars 25 25-50 Unknown Unknown No Updated 8/25
Cosmo 25-50 50-100 Unknown Unknown Updated 8/22
Encore 10 10 10 10 Yes, on some tables Updated 8/12
Excalibur 10-15 15 10 15 Updated 8/24, crapless is usually $10. Bubble craps $5
Flamingo 10-15 15-25 Unknown 25 Updated 9/29 - $100 table at times.
Harrah's 15 25 25 25 No Updated 8/22
Linq 15 15 Unknown 25 No Updated 8/22
Luxor 10 10 15 15 Updated 9/13
Mandalay Bay 15 Unknown Unknown Unknown
MGM Grand 10 25 Unknown Unknown Yes
Mirage 15 25 Unknown Unknown Yes Updated 9/29
NY/NY 10 15-25 15 15-25 Yes Updated 8/31
Osheas Unknown 15 Unknown Unknown
Paris 15 15 Unknown Unknown No Updated 8/22
Sahara 5 10 10 10 Updated 8/15
Strat Day 10 Unknown 10 25 No
Treasure Island 15 15 15 15 No Updated 9/4
Tropicana 10 Unknown No Updated 9/22
Venetian 25 25 Unknown Unknown No Updated 8/22
Wynn 10 10 10 10 Yes, on some tables Updated 8/12
Downtown Casino Day Min Night Min Weekend Day Weekend Night Dividers Comments
Binions 5 10 5 10 Binions had $5 table several times (opens at 10, usually 5 until 6PM) Updated 9/4
California 10 10 Unknown Unknown Tables open at 11AM Updated 8/10
The D 15 15 15 15-25 No glass Updated 9/4
Downtown Grand 10 10 Unknown Unknown Table opens at noon. Updated 8/10.
El Cortez 10 10 10 10 Yes, some tables 2 tables Updated 9/4
Four Queens 10 10 10 10 No Updated 8/15
Fremont 10 10 10 Unknown Updated 8/10.
Golden Gate 10-15 15 15 Unknown Updated 8/29 (GG has been 15 some mornings dropping to 10 later in the day)
Golden Nugget 10-15 10 Unknown Unknown $15 with one table open on 8/18
Plaza 10 10 Unknown Unknown Updated 7/30
Sams Town 15 15 Unknown Unknown 1 table
Offstrip Casino Day Min Night Min Weekend Day Weekend Night Dividers Comments
Aliante 10 10 Unknown Unknown
Boulder Station 10 10 Unknown Unknown
Cannery 5 5 5 Unknown up to 2 tables - now allowing 4 per side Updated 8/31
Ellis Island 5 5 5 5 1 table - Updated 8/17 - I just called the pit at Ellis. Craps table opens up at 10am and its 5 dollars 90% of the time
Gold Coast 10 10 10 Unknown Updated 8/31
Green Valley Ranch 10 10 Unknown Unknown 2 tables open
The Orleans 10 25 Unknown Unknown up to 4 tables, I was asked to wear a mask
Palace Station 10 10 10 Unknown Unknown ATS And Firebet tables Updated 9/17
Palms N/A N/A Unknown Unknown No open date announced
Red Rock 10 15 15 Unknown Updated 8/14
South Point 5 5 5 10 No Updated 8/31
Strat 5 10 Unknown Unknown
Sunset Station 5 5 Unknown Unknown
Westgate 15 Unknown Updated 8/24
Other NV Casinos Day Min Night Min Weekend Day Weekend Night Dividers Comments
Cactus Pete's (Jackpot) 5 5 5 5 No single table Updated 9/29/20
Aquariums (Laughlin) 5 5 10 10 No ATS - Updated 9/29/20
Edgewater (Laughlin) 10 10 10 10 Updated 9/29/20
Gold Nugget (Laughlin) 5 5 10 10 No Opened at noon -Updated 9/29/20
Harrahs (Laughlin) 10 10 10 10 no Updated 9/29/20
Tropicana (Laughlin) 10 10 10 10 Opened at 6PM on weekeday - Updated 9/29/20
Atlantis (Reno) 5/10 5/10 Unknown Unknown 3 tables on weekends
Cal Neva (Reno) 5 5 10 Unknown Updated 9/12
Circus Circus (Reno) Closed Closed Unknown Unknown Closed table game pit
Eldorado (Reno) 5 10 10 25 Updated 9/12
Grand Sierra (Reno) 15 15-25 15 25 Unknown Updated 9/29/20
The Nuggett (Reno) 5 5 5 5 Update 8/22
Peppermill (Reno) 5 5 10 10 3 craps tables
Sands (Reno) 5 5 5 5 Update 8/22
Silver Legacy (Reno) 10 25 Unknown Unknown
Western Village (Reno) 1 1 1 1 Update 8/22
Hard Rock (Tahoe) 5 5 Unknown Unknown
Harrahs (Tahoe) 10 10 Unknown Unknown
Montbleu (Tahoe) 10 15 Unknown Unknown
Nugget (Wendover) 5 5 5 5 Updated 7/31
Peppermill (Wendover) 5 5 10 10 Updated 7/31
Rainbow (Wendover) 5 5 10 10 Updated 7/31
Part 1. It's getting buried so I figured we would make a new one.
Part 2
Part 3
submitted by necrochaos to Craps [link] [comments]

Westgate Performance So Far...

EDIT #1: Background: Here's a link to the competition. Basically, ~1100 gamblers sign up for a contest in Vegas ($1,500 buy-in). Each makes 5 picks against the line every week. So, that gives you a solid 5,000-6,000 picks to gaze at before the games begin. The payout is in the millions, I believe.
I saw a post about the Westgate competition, and decided to look into building a spreadsheet to see if it is at all predictive. A common criticism is that most sites pulling this data are aggregating their picks across all submissions - including those made by bettors with poor records. So, I decided to scrape all of the data but narrow it to picks made by those amongst the top of the standings.
Last week, I looked at everyone who was 4-0-1 or better (sample of 44 bettors, 220 total picks made). Overall, this sample performed at about chance levels (8-8 on consensus picks, 53% of picks made were on the right side). However, the top-5 picks (KC, NYG, GB, BAL, & SF) did well (4-1). So, I figured I had mixed results heading into this week.
This week, things have gone off the rails. I looked at everyone with an 8-2 record or better (sample of 68 bettors, 340 total picks made). I know the results are early, but so far the consensus picks (NYG, ATL, NE, TEN, JAX, PIT, BUF, & WAS) are a shit-show (2-6 record). Only 34% of the picks made have been on the right side of the bet. Further, the top-5 picks (NYG, ATL, NE, TEN, & ARI) are 1-3. Within this subsample, 29 bettors picked NYG against only 2 that picked SF. This is particularly surprising, because I have noticed this pool takes a lot of favorites (~65%) and this was a particular line that jumped out at me as not giving the Giants very many points.
Again, way too early to draw meaningful inferences from this data - but so far, fading Westgate would have been the optimal strategy. Overall, those at the top of the standings have gone 10-14 (42%) at the consensus pick level or 176-218 (45%) at the individual pick level.
I'll track it for a few more weeks and can share the results if you degens are interested.
EDIT #2: Final numbers from today: The consensus picks went 5-10. Only 39% of picks were on the correct side of the bet. If you focus only on the top-5 most popular picks, those picks went 1-4.
YTD: 13-18 (top-5 picks are 5-5). 239 of the 538 (44%) of the picks have been on the right side of the bet.
EDIT #3: The correlation between week-2 performance and week-3 performance is 0.038 (p=.195). In other words, performance in week-2 did not significantly predict performance in week-3, even if you consider all 1,150 cases.
submitted by iscurred to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Local's Guide to Doing The Strip on New Year's Eve

I've lived here for 8 years and never braved the Strip on New Year's Eve, always downplaying it with the traditional line of "I'm not going anywhere near the Strip on New Year's Eve!" I have heard horror stories of people getting stuck in parking garages on the Strip in an exit line that lasts for hours. A Metro officer I know always complains about how cold it is to stand in the middle of Las Vegas Boulevard for hours. If I were to attempt to do the tourist thing for New Year's Eve, I would surely perish, right?
Last night, I decided to man up and do the Strip on New Year's Eve. YOLO.
But I didn't go in blind. Thanks to some tidbits I learned on /vegas and via Googling, I did the Strip on New Year's Eve in a ridiculously efficient way. Here's how you can too:
  1. Acquire (2) one-way tickets for the Monorail. Take your Nevada ID to a manned ticket booth and you will get tickets for $1 each, for a total of $2. Tickets are good for up to a year, so you could literally go to a booth today and buy tickets for the next New Year's Eve. There is a booth at the Sahara stop -- I recommend buying your tickets there because the Sahara offers free parking.
  2. On New Year's Eve, park at the Westgate. There is no manned ticket booth at the Westgate, which is why you have to buy your tickets at a different location.
  3. The Westgate is your last decent chance for a bathroom break. Take advantage of this.
  4. Use one ticket to get on the southbound Monorail at the Westgate and ride it to one of the stops on the Strip proper (Linq, Flamingo, Bally's or MGM Grand). I got off at the Linq.
  5. Walk from the Monorail station through the casino and out to Las Vegas Boulevard.
  6. The Strip will be absolutely PACKED with people. Shoulder-to-shoulder, butt-to-butt. It will feel like a terribly designed mosh pit, and you might question your ability to breathe. You will rub against many strangers. This is part of the experience; take it all in. Smile and laugh and people-watch.
  7. After the fireworks, trudge through the crowds of people back to the Monorail station. I walked down the outdoor Linq promenade, and crowds thinned considerably once I got past the doors to the casino. (There was a crush of people trying to get back inside the casino, and security was checking everyone.)
  8. Use your remaining ticket to board the northbound Monorail. There will be many, many people crammed onto the Monorail car. This, too, is part of the experience. Bask in it.
  9. Exit the Monorail at the Westgate station.
  10. Get in your car and go home.
From the time I got out of my car at the Westgate to the time I got back in it, less than an hour had passed.
There was zero traffic in the Westgate parking lot. I live in Silverado Ranch, so I took Joe W. Brown Drive to Sahara to the 15 south. I made it home in 20 minutes.
Enjoy.
submitted by sparkplug890 to vegaslocals [link] [comments]

[Tournament Report] 62nd at Grand Prix Las Vegas with Neobrand - A Weekend of What Could've Beens

Unsurprising to most, I decided to bring Neobrand to battle last weekend at Grand Prix Las Vegas, even though I probably could've easily gotten my hands on a copy of Hogaak. I've already tweeted a lot about Neobrand and its place in the metagame, but to summarize:
  1. Hogaak and decks rising to beat Hogaak were also chasing away decks such as UWx and Death's Shadow, some of the worst matchups for the deck.
  2. Hogaak itself and the rise in decks that can supposedly combat Hogaak reasonably (Burn, Red Phoenix, Tron, Jund) were all great matchups for Neobrand. The collective win rate against the above decks during my testing was 76%.
  3. Mainstream MTG content made it clear that half measures vs. Hogaak do not work, so most lists started with 4 Leylines, decreasing the chance of Grafdigger's Cages.
  4. Neobrand in general has a very select number of axes of hate it dislikes.

I've written over 10,000 words on the actual deck (below), so for the purposes of this report I will focus on the weekend.
https://magic.facetofacegames.com/neoshoal-combo-primer-part-1-the-cards-behind-the-turn-1-meme/
https://magic.facetofacegames.com/neobrand-combo-primer-part-2-in-game-heuristics-gameplay/
http://magic.facetofacegames.com/neobrand-combo-primer-part-3-sample-game-walkthrough-sideboardguide/

Thursday - Modern MCQ
I fly in on Wednesday night, check into my room at Westgate, and promptly accrue zero hours of sleep until a 30 min window around 8 AM where Cyruscg checks into the room and wakes me up. Rude. We both spout our nonsense about how well prepared we are and how we are going to farm each other in the final.

My list: https://twitter.com/finalnub/status/1163260804579282944

Round 1: WW vs. Jund
Round 2: WLL vs. Gx Tron. It was unfortunately friendly fire between two Vancouverites. Unfortunately in game 3 he snap keeps 7 but has no early plays so I read him for a clear Warping Wail (which is a 0-1 of). I tried to get the Allosaurus Rider beats going but he threatens to Tron by turn 5 so I am forced to jam my Eldritch Evolution and opponent shows the Warping Wail.
Round 3: WW vs. Hogaak. Game 1 I combo him from 8 life on turn 4. Opponent presents a turn 2 14 power clock in game 2 and I ignore it.
Round 4: WW Elves vs Dana Fischer. Fun match. It was my first time playing against Dana/Adam and was impressed by how they handled the match.
Round 5: LWL vs. Devoted Druid. Game 3 I have the turn 3 kill but opponent casts an unexpected Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and that singlehandedly defeated
Round 6: Draw for prizes
Tournament Summary: 3-2-1

List felt great but my lack of sleeping is catching up to me. We go out for a nice dinner at Lotus of Siam (must-ry in LV) and I met new some interesting people. I ponder whether to make any chances to the 75 but ditches the idea. This is the night where I realize that the beds and the pillows at Westgate are actually the nut low. Soft as cloud (think Mallow from Mario RPG) and offers negative support. As someone who had to have a discectomy this was untenable. My line is to choose to sleep on the couch and I get rewarded with 3 hours of crappy sleep.

Friday - Modern Main Event Day 1
Round 3 vs. James (Jund): WLW
I make a few potentially lethal mistakes here. First did cost me game 2 where my keep was a nut Leyline of Sanctity+turn 2 Neoform hand. Instead of waiting until turn 3 to potentially have another land, draw and a chance to hold up Veil of Summer, I am overconfident and jam on turn 2, fizzling and losing to an opposing Assassin's Trophy.
Game 3 is less egregious but still bad. I had an opportunity to turn 3 Evolution into Griselbrand but elect not to because I would've had to burn a Nourishing Shoal and something about James' play pattern indicated no additional discard. Of course, James plays an Inquisition right after but he takes my Laboratory Maniac instead of my Eldritch Evolution/Allosaurus Rider. I produce a Griselbrand and drown him in card advantage (and by that I mean multiple Allosaurus Rider, second Griselbrand, hardcast Chancellor of the Tangle).
3-0

Round 4 vs. Jason (Burn): WW
Not much to speak of in a good matchup. Highlight of this match was in game 2 where I make a few marginal but disciplined mulligans down to 4, draw the Leyline of Sanctity after keeping 4 (of course), and still win because Jason was on a no creature draw. 0 mana gain 15 life is good vs. that.
4-0

Round 5 vs. Daniel (Bant Spirits): LWL
I mulligan to a 5 that is two cards short of a turn 3 evolution. Daniel leads on turn 1 Mausoleum Wanderer which is unbeatable. I scoop without showing him much. I am raging inside as this is one of the worst matchup you can have for Neobrand but I hadn't seen Spirits in almost a year. That's Modern for you!
In game 2, I mulligan to 6 but win on turn 1.
Game 3 is a doozy. I keep a 6 that's missing 2 pieces but has a Pact of Negation. Opponent keeps 5 and his only early play is a flashed Rattlechain, which hits me twice. Given that he didn't elect to flash anything in after the Rattlechain turn, my read was a hand either full of Paths, Queller, 2 mana countermagic or Force. Eventually I jam the combo at 16 life as one more Rattlechain hit would've turned off a draw 7 and it's not going to get better. Daniel Deprives my Evolution, I Pact it, Daniel Cracks his Canopy and..........
Draws Supreme Phantom off the top, which he slams along with his hand of Aether Vial+Force of Negation. Tough beats!
4-1

Round 6 vs. Joseph (Red Phoenix): WLW
We split an unremarkable pair of games before my mulligan to 4 in game 3, which is Neoform, UG land, green cardx2. Here I'm just thinking not like this and start making plans to play ANT in tomorrow's Legacy MCQ. However, Joseph is on a slow keep on 7 centered around 1 Soul-Scar Mage and Shrine of Burning Rage. That actually gives me a chance to live to my turn 5 and combo. I count my lucky stars and consider visiting the casino tonight.
5-1

Round 7 vs. Nathan (Gx Tron): WLW
At this point, I'm still in disbelief at how I managed to steal two matches off of mulligans to 4 vs. two of the most aggressive decks in Modern. Little did I know the day would take another turn for the ridiculous...
Game 1 I turn 2 kill Nathan. Game 2 He has a turn 1 Cage and turn 4 Karn.
Game 3 is an absurd one. While I mulligan to 6 Nathan snap-keeps 7, which has me worried for an opening Cage. My mulligan to 6 is a turn 2 with no Oxidizes, but it's not a hand you can realistically mulligan. Sure enough, Nathan has a turn 1 Cage and I'm resigned to my fate and continue mentally planning my ANT sideboard (hint: Just netdeck Cyrus). I do run out the turn 2 Allosaurus Rider out because why not.
It turns out, however, that Nathan kept a 1 lander and soon the match has my full attention. Simian Spirit Guide joins the fray to potentially cut a turn off the clock. There is an interesting spot where Nathan has Power Plantx2, Mine, Forest and Grafdigger's Cage, and just "fogged" my attack of 4/4 Rider+2/2 SSG with his Ballista while at 4 life. I know from a previous Ancient Stirrings that he had an Oblivion Stone. I have an offline Neoform, Allosaurus Rider and 2 green cards with my surviving 4/4 Rider.
Thinking here is that if I play out the second Allosaurus Rider, I would be playing around another blocker that would fog (which I couldn't think of beside their 1-3 Ballistas. I doubt Thragtusk has entered his 60) and Dismember (don't laugh - they don't have enough bad cards to cut), but gets punished by a sweeper such as the Ostone that I know he has. If I hold the Rider, Nathan can draw Tron and Oblivion Stone, which would kill the Cage and I can combo in my second phase after the OStone activation. In the end, I ended up jamming the second Rider and pass with two 4/4s and opponent at 4. I had to sweat a big Ancient Stirrings but it whiffed. I win a game where the turn 1 Cage never got removed. Interesting.
6-1
Round 8 vs Austin (UW): WLW
I win the die roll and keep a turn 1 kill hand. Austin accidentally goes first and lays a tapped Colonnade. OK then...
Game 2 is also a bit absurd, in that I had two Pact of Negations for his two Force of Negations. However, Neobrand giveth and taketh, as the combo fizzled and we had to move onto game 3.
In game 3, we both appear to have kept a slower hand. Mine is an Eldritch Evolution (handy vs. Spell Snare) hand with Pact of Negation backup. Austin goes Island go, Field go, which is interesting as he's not able to represent Dovin's Veto. I jam on turn 4, which gets by his Mana Leak and gets around the Spell Snare that he ends up having. I win an impossible matchup and i think about how much murder I've gotten away with in the last 5 hours.
7-1

Round 9 vs Mac (Red Phoenix): WW
Games played out how you'd expect them to with turn 2/3 Griselbrands. Note that this deck can definitely kill a Griselbrand, so you have to evaluate carefully whether you should be drawing 7s to win this turn, or just pass and hope. There were a few tricky spots where I could've died to a very specific combination of cards, but luckily I survive.
8-1

I'm ecstatic that I'm 8-1 and feel very good about putting up a good result tomorrow. I also find that I am not the only maniac playing Neobrand. Chuck Pierce was actually at the 8-0 table playing for day 1 undefeated. He and his two friends came up to say hello and talk about the article, which was super cool. 6 of us ended up making day two with Neobrand, which seems pretty good for a "meme" deck that people have natural tendencies to dismiss immediately.

The Westgate bed remains unplayable and I get another 4 hours of rough sleep on the couch.

Saturday - Modern Main Event Day 12
Round 10 vs. Matthew (Amulet Titan): WW
Game 1 I mulligan to 4 and turn 2 him because why not?
Game 2 Opponent plays a turn 2 Trinket Mage fetching Pithing Needle, passes and asks if I'm going to kill. I do.
9-1

In between the rounds, I'm constantly chirping about how I've yet to face my bye (Hogaak) and how they would never show Neobrand on camera. Be careful what you wish for..

Round 11 Feature Match vs. Ashton (Turbo Hogaak):
You can watch the match here, as this was the round 11 main feature:
https://www.twitch.tv/channelfireball
In game 1, Ashton cannot beat a turn 2 7/7 flying lifelinker. Game 2 and 3 play out in similar ways in that Ashton presents a very fast Vengevine-fueled clock, which makes comboing a bit harder. I unfortunately brick in game 2. I take note of his start in game 3, which screams out Assassin's Trophy. If possible, I would want to wait as long as possible. to get another land+Veil, but alas I do not have the time. Waterlogged Groves also reared their ugly side, as the pings from the Groves made sure I was 14 or lower, denying me another draw 7.
The judge call was about communicaiton and when priority was implied to have been passed. I believe Ashton missed lethal after, as blocking with Rider means that he can jam onto the Feeder and win on the spot. He doesn't. I need him to make several mistakes in a row to have a chance here - something about trying to alpha strike with everyone including a blocker, him sacrificing to Carrion Feeder a few times to turn on Morbid on Life Goes On, and then killing him on the backswing. Of course, he ends up casting Hogaak as a blocker and the game is over from there.
9-2
I'm really irritated that I finally got to go back on the feature match and losing an easy matchup. As I said, you really should be careful of what you wish for :)
Round 12 vs. Boaz (Jeskai Urza): WW
Game one I turn 3 him. I learned that Boaz was holding a fully powered Whir of Invention to get Grafdigger's Cage/Pithing Needle/Bridge, but Boaz did not exactly know what deck this was, so he tapped out for Urza instead. He doesn't get to untap again in this game.
In game 2, I keep a close 7 with an Oxidize. However, Boaz plays an early Goblin Engineer and digs up a Pithing Needle. The Goblin Engineer is actually quite a nuisance, as it can loop back any key artifact if destroyed. I end up going for it around turn 4, where I lead with my life gain, Evolution then Oxidize on Pithing Needle. I activate to draw 7 and opponent tries to bring back the Needle, but I draw the entire deck minus 7 in response to the first draw 7 and Path. Fun game.
10-2
Up to this point, there's increased buzz about how people have seen and have been defeated by Neobrand at the top tables. Sure enough, it was Chuck Pierce and he seems to be doing well at 9-1 (he would lose his match off camera.

Round 13 vs. Chuck Pierce (Neobrand): WLW
This may be my most memorable match in the tournament. Chuck wins the die roll (wpwp) and proceeds to turn 1 me off Summoner's Pact. Unfortunately! Chuck fizzles and dies to Pact. This is the pinnacle of Modern
Game 2 is likely the most absurd game that I've played with this deck. I mulligan to 6 and has the turn 1 combo. Unfortunately, I fizzle but I can pass with no Pact to pay. I summon out two Allosaurus Riders and pass with those plus an 8/8 lifelink flier and a bunch of lands. Mistake 1): I should've kept an extra evolution spell to re-evolve into Griselbrand in case one Griselbrand isn't enough.
Chuck turn 1s but also fizzles, summons two Allosaurus Riders, cast Serum Visions to top/bobbom and passes the turn. My hand is mostly lands and cyclers at this point, and each side is staring at their counterpart's board of Rider, Rider and 8/8 Griselbrand. Our lives are 6 and 7.
My draw step yields me no lifegain to help. Mistake 2) I tank and pass the turn rather than attacking, reasoning that I don't have an Evolution spell so risking a block seems too risky. However, I think I should've attacked with Griselbrand for a few reasons:
  1. Opponent topped a card with SV. That means it has to be a life gain spell. I should've assumed that I was dead at that point.
  2. There's an off-chance where killing one Griselbrand is plenty enough. That scenario requires the other side to have drawn both Griselbrands so re-evolving into Griselbrand is not a line
As played, Chuck's next draw is a Nourishing Shoal and I'm dead on the spot.
In game 3, I mulligan to 4 and Chuck to 5. I fire off two SVs and find the combo with relative ease while Chuck's hand does nothing. For the third time this weekend, I won with a mulligan to 4... and start thinking whether I'm meant to be the winner this weekend.
Round 14 Feature Match vs. Jack (Burn)
This is also on the Channelfireball Twitch VOD. As you can see from the coverage, I do not know who the opponent is so I keep a fine ish of SSG, Cantor, Waterlogged Grove, Manamorphose, Manamorphose, Summoner's Pact. In hindsight, this is much closer to a mulligan than a keep in the dark. However, the hand already had Manamorphose mana to cycle a third mana source in Cantor to power out an Eldritch Evolution. As you can see in game 1, I never get a chance to play.
Game 2 is the game that I've been thinking for a while now. Basically, I keep a clean turn 2 combo without Pact triggers. Jack's turn 1 of land go is a bit suspicious. Here I tank and think about whether I should wait a turn, jam and go ham, or jam and pass. I end up taking the last line. Most of the times, Burn players should be playing 2-3 Path to Exile. It's certainly conceivable that Jack is holding up a Path, but I'd rather not play around that by waiting. I think most of the times with them having 2-3 Paths for Griselbrand, I'm fine trying to win with a 8/8 flying lifelinker and not drawing any cards immediately.
There's also another microdecision here that could've changed the game: what to pitch to my Allosaurus Rider. I ended up pitching the Wurm rather than Allosaurus Rider because I wanted to leave myself an option to re-combo next turn or just beat down with the Rider. I thought about this more and honestly don't know what the right answer is.
Anyway, as played Jack has Path and each of my draw 7s aren't great. I did draw a Shoal but no Wurm so exiling the Wurm ends up punishing me. My plan from here is to draw enough to buffer my life total whie being able to re-combo next turn, or enough to win via Allosaurus Rider betadown. As you can see, I just don't get anything, which is anything but this sort of variance is part of the game. Unfortunately, I get on two camera matches and lose both of them in key spots. Good beats - this game is tough!
11-3
Round 15 vs. Kevin (Thalia Stompy): LL
Kevin turns out to be a friend/disciple of one famous SpiderSpace that also streams this deck. I mulligan to a great 4 card hand that actually needs just two lands to combo. Kevin turbos out Leonin Arbiter on turn 1 and GQs me. That is what they call in the business good game.
Game 2 doesn't go much better. Chalice on 0 ruins a turn 2 combo, and I draw my Allosaurus Rider a turn two late while he suffocates me with the TKS/Displacer lock.
I'm fairly certain this deck is very favored against Neobrand, as Thalia and Arbiter are auto-wins game 1. they get to bring in more artifact from the SB post-bardo. Oh well, what can you do !
11-4

Tournament Summary

Bonus: What do I think of Neoform in the post-ban meta?

Thanks for reading, and until next time, happy turn 1ing!
submitted by finalnub to spikes [link] [comments]

The Golden State Warriors are the biggest pre-season favorites in NBA history*... for the third year in a row

Currently the Warriors are -175 favorites to win a championship in the 2018-2019 NBA season. Last year they were -187 at tip off and the year before they were -128 at tip off.1
This is from an article from 2016.2
Jeff Sherman, head NBA oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, remembers the 1997-98 Bulls team, which was coming off a 72-win season, being around a minus-125 title favorite entering that season...
But Sherman and other sports betting industry veterans struggled to recall another team -- in basketball, baseball or football -- that was an odds-on favorite to start the season.
"Odds-on" suggests a team has a better than even chance to win. It also means you win less money than you bet.
One thing worth mentioning, and that if anyone knows anything about please share, is that the history of Casino Sports Betting in Vegas only goes back to ~1975. While sports betting has been legal in Nevada since the 1950s, it was taxed so highly in that it was pushed into the black and gray market. I'm certain there are documents of futures from years before ~1975, but my Google skills aren't strong enough.
Assuming there isn't an injury to the Warriors big four (five?) or a ridiculous trade, they will likely be bigger favorites by tip off based on the way these lines have moved historically.
1) http://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nba-odds/
2) https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/warriors-rare-odds-favorites-win-nba-title/story?id=42891374
submitted by Lawschoolfool to nba [link] [comments]

[Tournament Report] 11-4 with Neobrand at GP Las Vegas

Unsurprising to most, I decided to bring Neobrand to battle last weekend at Grand Prix Las Vegas, even though I probably could've easily gotten my hands on a copy of Hogaak. I've already tweeted a lot about Neobrand and its place in the metagame, but to summarize:
  1. Hogaak and decks rising to beat Hogaak were also chasing away decks such as UWx and Death's Shadow, some of the worst matchups for the deck.
  2. Hogaak itself and the rise in decks that can supposedly combat Hogaak reasonably (Burn, Red Phoenix, Tron, Jund) were all great matchups for Neobrand. The collective win rate against the above decks during my testing was 76%.
  3. Mainstream MTG content made it clear that half measures vs. Hogaak do not work, so most lists started with 4 Leylines, decreasing the chance of Grafdigger's Cages.
  4. Neobrand in general has a very select number of axes of hate it dislikes.

I've written over 10,000 words on the actual deck (below), so for the purposes of this report I will focus on the weekend.
https://magic.facetofacegames.com/neoshoal-combo-primer-part-1-the-cards-behind-the-turn-1-meme/
https://magic.facetofacegames.com/neobrand-combo-primer-part-2-in-game-heuristics-gameplay/
http://magic.facetofacegames.com/neobrand-combo-primer-part-3-sample-game-walkthrough-sideboardguide/

Thursday - Modern MCQ
I fly in on Wednesday night, check into my room at Westgate, and promptly accrue zero hours of sleep until a 30 min window around 8 AM where Cyruscg checks into the room and wakes me up. Rude. We both spout our nonsense about how well prepared we are and how we are going to farm each other in the final.

My list: https://twitter.com/finalnub/status/1163260804579282944

Round 1: WW vs. Jund
Round 2: WLL vs. Gx Tron. It was unfortunately friendly fire between two Vancouverites. Unfortunately in game 3 he snap keeps 7 but has no early plays so I read him for a clear Warping Wail (which is a 0-1 of). I tried to get the Allosaurus Rider beats going but he threatens to Tron by turn 5 so I am forced to jam my Eldritch Evolution and opponent shows the Warping Wail.
Round 3: WW vs. Hogaak. Game 1 I combo him from 8 life on turn 4. Opponent presents a turn 2 14 power clock in game 2 and I ignore it.
Round 4: WW Elves vs Dana Fischer. Fun match. It was my first time playing against Dana/Adam and was impressed by how they handled the match.
Round 5: LWL vs. Devoted Druid. Game 3 I have the turn 3 kill but opponent casts an unexpected Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and that singlehandedly defeated
Round 6: Draw for prizes
Tournament Summary: 3-2-1

List felt great but my lack of sleeping is catching up to me. We go out for a nice dinner at Lotus of Siam (must-ry in LV) and I met new some interesting people. I ponder whether to make any chances to the 75 but ditches the idea. This is the night where I realize that the beds and the pillows at Westgate are actually the nut low. Soft as cloud (think Mallow from Mario RPG) and offers negative support. As someone who had to have a discectomy this was untenable. My line is to choose to sleep on the couch and I get rewarded with 3 hours of crappy sleep.

Friday - Modern Main Event Day 1
Round 3 vs. James (Jund): WLW
I make a few potentially lethal mistakes here. First did cost me game 2 where my keep was a nut Leyline of Sanctity+turn 2 Neoform hand. Instead of waiting until turn 3 to potentially have another land, draw and a chance to hold up Veil of Summer, I am overconfident and jam on turn 2, fizzling and losing to an opposing Assassin's Trophy.
Game 3 is less egregious but still bad. I had an opportunity to turn 3 Evolution into Griselbrand but elect not to because I would've had to burn a Nourishing Shoal and something about James' play pattern indicated no additional discard. Of course, James plays an Inquisition right after but he takes my Laboratory Maniac instead of my Eldritch Evolution/Allosaurus Rider. I produce a Griselbrand and drown him in card advantage (and by that I mean multiple Allosaurus Rider, second Griselbrand, hardcast Chancellor of the Tangle).
3-0

Round 4 vs. Jason (Burn): WW
Not much to speak of in a good matchup. Highlight of this match was in game 2 where I make a few marginal but disciplined mulligans down to 4, draw the Leyline of Sanctity after keeping 4 (of course), and still win because Jason was on a no creature draw. 0 mana gain 15 life is good vs. that.
4-0

Round 5 vs. Daniel (Bant Spirits): LWL
I mulligan to a 5 that is two cards short of a turn 3 evolution. Daniel leads on turn 1 Mausoleum Wanderer which is unbeatable. I scoop without showing him much. I am raging inside as this is one of the worst matchup you can have for Neobrand but I hadn't seen Spirits in almost a year. That's Modern for you!
In game 2, I mulligan to 6 but win on turn 1.
Game 3 is a doozy. I keep a 6 that's missing 2 pieces but has a Pact of Negation. Opponent keeps 5 and his only early play is a flashed Rattlechain, which hits me twice. Given that he didn't elect to flash anything in after the Rattlechain turn, my read was a hand either full of Paths, Queller, 2 mana countermagic or Force. Eventually I jam the combo at 16 life as one more Rattlechain hit would've turned off a draw 7 and it's not going to get better. Daniel Deprives my Evolution, I Pact it, Daniel Cracks his Canopy and..........
Draws Supreme Phantom off the top, which he slams along with his hand of Aether Vial+Force of Negation. Tough beats!
4-1

Round 6 vs. Joseph (Red Phoenix): WLW
We split an unremarkable pair of games before my mulligan to 4 in game 3, which is Neoform, UG land, green cardx2. Here I'm just thinking not like this and start making plans to play ANT in tomorrow's Legacy MCQ. However, Joseph is on a slow keep on 7 centered around 1 Soul-Scar Mage and Shrine of Burning Rage. That actually gives me a chance to live to my turn 5 and combo. I count my lucky stars and consider visiting the casino tonight.
5-1

Round 7 vs. Nathan (Gx Tron): WLW
At this point, I'm still in disbelief at how I managed to steal two matches off of mulligans to 4 vs. two of the most aggressive decks in Modern. Little did I know the day would take another turn for the ridiculous...
Game 1 I turn 2 kill Nathan. Game 2 He has a turn 1 Cage and turn 4 Karn.
Game 3 is an absurd one. While I mulligan to 6 Nathan snap-keeps 7, which has me worried for an opening Cage. My mulligan to 6 is a turn 2 with no Oxidizes, but it's not a hand you can realistically mulligan. Sure enough, Nathan has a turn 1 Cage and I'm resigned to my fate and continue mentally planning my ANT sideboard (hint: Just netdeck Cyrus). I do run out the turn 2 Allosaurus Rider out because why not.
It turns out, however, that Nathan kept a 1 lander and soon the match has my full attention. Simian Spirit Guide joins the fray to potentially cut a turn off the clock. There is an interesting spot where Nathan has Power Plantx2, Mine, Forest and Grafdigger's Cage, and just "fogged" my attack of 4/4 Rider+2/2 SSG with his Ballista while at 4 life. I know from a previous Ancient Stirrings that he had an Oblivion Stone. I have an offline Neoform, Allosaurus Rider and 2 green cards with my surviving 4/4 Rider.
Thinking here is that if I play out the second Allosaurus Rider, I would be playing around another blocker that would fog (which I couldn't think of beside their 1-3 Ballistas. I doubt Thragtusk has entered his 60) and Dismember (don't laugh - they don't have enough bad cards to cut), but gets punished by a sweeper such as the Ostone that I know he has. If I hold the Rider, Nathan can draw Tron and Oblivion Stone, which would kill the Cage and I can combo in my second phase after the OStone activation. In the end, I ended up jamming the second Rider and pass with two 4/4s and opponent at 4. I had to sweat a big Ancient Stirrings but it whiffed. I win a game where the turn 1 Cage never got removed. Interesting.
6-1
Round 8 vs Austin (UW): WLW
I win the die roll and keep a turn 1 kill hand. Austin accidentally goes first and lays a tapped Colonnade. OK then...
Game 2 is also a bit absurd, in that I had two Pact of Negations for his two Force of Negations. However, Neobrand giveth and taketh, as the combo fizzled and we had to move onto game 3.
In game 3, we both appear to have kept a slower hand. Mine is an Eldritch Evolution (handy vs. Spell Snare) hand with Pact of Negation backup. Austin goes Island go, Field go, which is interesting as he's not able to represent Dovin's Veto. I jam on turn 4, which gets by his Mana Leak and gets around the Spell Snare that he ends up having. I win an impossible matchup and i think about how much murder I've gotten away with in the last 5 hours.
7-1

Round 9 vs Mac (Red Phoenix): WW
Games played out how you'd expect them to with turn 2/3 Griselbrands. Note that this deck can definitely kill a Griselbrand, so you have to evaluate carefully whether you should be drawing 7s to win this turn, or just pass and hope. There were a few tricky spots where I could've died to a very specific combination of cards, but luckily I survive.
8-1

I'm ecstatic that I'm 8-1 and feel very good about putting up a good result tomorrow. I also find that I am not the only maniac playing Neobrand. Chuck Pierce was actually at the 8-0 table playing for day 1 undefeated. He and his two friends came up to say hello and talk about the article, which was super cool. 6 of us ended up making day two with Neobrand, which seems pretty good for a "meme" deck that people have natural tendencies to dismiss immediately.

The Westgate bed remains unplayable and I get another 4 hours of rough sleep on the couch.

Saturday - Modern Main Event Day 12
Round 10 vs. Matthew (Amulet Titan): WW
Game 1 I mulligan to 4 and turn 2 him because why not?
Game 2 Opponent plays a turn 2 Trinket Mage fetching Pithing Needle, passes and asks if I'm going to kill. I do.
9-1

In between the rounds, I'm constantly chirping about how I've yet to face my bye (Hogaak) and how they would never show Neobrand on camera. Be careful what you wish for..

Round 11 Feature Match vs. Ashton (Turbo Hogaak):
You can watch the match here, as this was the round 11 main feature:
https://www.twitch.tv/channelfireball
In game 1, Ashton cannot beat a turn 2 7/7 flying lifelinker. Game 2 and 3 play out in similar ways in that Ashton presents a very fast Vengevine-fueled clock, which makes comboing a bit harder. I unfortunately brick in game 2. I take note of his start in game 3, which screams out Assassin's Trophy. If possible, I would want to wait as long as possible. to get another land+Veil, but alas I do not have the time. Waterlogged Groves also reared their ugly side, as the pings from the Groves made sure I was 14 or lower, denying me another draw 7.
The judge call was about communicaiton and when priority was implied to have been passed. I believe Ashton missed lethal after, as blocking with Rider means that he can jam onto the Feeder and win on the spot. He doesn't. I need him to make several mistakes in a row to have a chance here - something about trying to alpha strike with everyone including a blocker, him sacrificing to Carrion Feeder a few times to turn on Morbid on Life Goes On, and then killing him on the backswing. Of course, he ends up casting Hogaak as a blocker and the game is over from there.
9-2
I'm really irritated that I finally got to go back on the feature match and losing an easy matchup. As I said, you really should be careful of what you wish for :)
Round 12 vs. Boaz (Jeskai Urza): WW
Game one I turn 3 him. I learned that Boaz was holding a fully powered Whir of Invention to get Grafdigger's Cage/Pithing Needle/Bridge, but Boaz did not exactly know what deck this was, so he tapped out for Urza instead. He doesn't get to untap again in this game.
In game 2, I keep a close 7 with an Oxidize. However, Boaz plays an early Goblin Engineer and digs up a Pithing Needle. The Goblin Engineer is actually quite a nuisance, as it can loop back any key artifact if destroyed. I end up going for it around turn 4, where I lead with my life gain, Evolution then Oxidize on Pithing Needle. I activate to draw 7 and opponent tries to bring back the Needle, but I draw the entire deck minus 7 in response to the first draw 7 and Path. Fun game.
10-2
Up to this point, there's increased buzz about how people have seen and have been defeated by Neobrand at the top tables. Sure enough, it was Chuck Pierce and he seems to be doing well at 9-1 (he would lose his match off camera.

Round 13 vs. Chuck Pierce (Neobrand): WLW
This may be my most memorable match in the tournament. Chuck wins the die roll (wpwp) and proceeds to turn 1 me off Summoner's Pact. Unfortunately! Chuck fizzles and dies to Pact. This is the pinnacle of Modern
Game 2 is likely the most absurd game that I've played with this deck. I mulligan to 6 and has the turn 1 combo. Unfortunately, I fizzle but I can pass with no Pact to pay. I summon out two Allosaurus Riders and pass with those plus an 8/8 lifelink flier and a bunch of lands. Mistake 1): I should've kept an extra evolution spell to re-evolve into Griselbrand in case one Griselbrand isn't enough.
Chuck turn 1s but also fizzles, summons two Allosaurus Riders, cast Serum Visions to top/bobbom and passes the turn. My hand is mostly lands and cyclers at this point, and each side is staring at their counterpart's board of Rider, Rider and 8/8 Griselbrand. Our lives are 6 and 7.
My draw step yields me no lifegain to help. Mistake 2) I tank and pass the turn rather than attacking, reasoning that I don't have an Evolution spell so risking a block seems too risky. However, I think I should've attacked with Griselbrand for a few reasons:
  1. Opponent topped a card with SV. That means it has to be a life gain spell. I should've assumed that I was dead at that point.
  2. There's an off-chance where killing one Griselbrand is plenty enough. That scenario requires the other side to have drawn both Griselbrands so re-evolving into Griselbrand is not a line
As played, Chuck's next draw is a Nourishing Shoal and I'm dead on the spot.
In game 3, I mulligan to 4 and Chuck to 5. I fire off two SVs and find the combo with relative ease while Chuck's hand does nothing. For the third time this weekend, I won with a mulligan to 4... and start thinking whether I'm meant to be the winner this weekend.
Round 14 Feature Match vs. Jack (Burn)
This is also on the Channelfireball Twitch VOD. As you can see from the coverage, I do not know who the opponent is so I keep a fine ish of SSG, Cantor, Waterlogged Grove, Manamorphose, Manamorphose, Summoner's Pact. In hindsight, this is much closer to a mulligan than a keep in the dark. However, the hand already had Manamorphose mana to cycle a third mana source in Cantor to power out an Eldritch Evolution. As you can see in game 1, I never get a chance to play.
Game 2 is the game that I've been thinking for a while now. Basically, I keep a clean turn 2 combo without Pact triggers. Jack's turn 1 of land go is a bit suspicious. Here I tank and think about whether I should wait a turn, jam and go ham, or jam and pass. I end up taking the last line. Most of the times, Burn players should be playing 2-3 Path to Exile. It's certainly conceivable that Jack is holding up a Path, but I'd rather not play around that by waiting. I think most of the times with them having 2-3 Paths for Griselbrand, I'm fine trying to win with a 8/8 flying lifelinker and not drawing any cards immediately.
There's also another microdecision here that could've changed the game: what to pitch to my Allosaurus Rider. I ended up pitching the Wurm rather than Allosaurus Rider because I wanted to leave myself an option to re-combo next turn or just beat down with the Rider. I thought about this more and honestly don't know what the right answer is.
Anyway, as played Jack has Path and each of my draw 7s aren't great. I did draw a Shoal but no Wurm so exiling the Wurm ends up punishing me. My plan from here is to draw enough to buffer my life total whie being able to re-combo next turn, or enough to win via Allosaurus Rider betadown. As you can see, I just don't get anything, which is anything but this sort of variance is part of the game. Unfortunately, I get on two camera matches and lose both of them in key spots. Good beats - this game is tough!
11-3
Round 15 vs. Kevin (Thalia Stompy): LL
Kevin turns out to be a friend/disciple of one famous SpiderSpace that also streams this deck. I mulligan to a great 4 card hand that actually needs just two lands to combo. Kevin turbos out Leonin Arbiter on turn 1 and GQs me. That is what they call in the business good game.
Game 2 doesn't go much better. Chalice on 0 ruins a turn 2 combo, and I draw my Allosaurus Rider a turn two late while he suffocates me with the TKS/Displacer lock.
I'm fairly certain this deck is very favored against Neobrand, as Thalia and Arbiter are auto-wins game 1. they get to bring in more artifact from the SB post-bardo. Oh well, what can you do !
11-4

Tournament Summary

Bonus: What do I think of Neoform in the post-ban meta?

Thanks for reading, and until next time, happy turn 1ing!
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Looking for Basic Vegas tips

Hey all!
I'm back in town for work towards the end of November and bringing my SO with me. I've been here a handful of times for work and I brought her out for a week last year and did a lot of the traditional Vegas first timer things. We like to gamble and we'll be sure to tour the casinos and check out the holiday decorations that might already be up. Looking for suggestions for "first-timer" Vegas activities in case we missed anything the first time around. We're staying at the Westgate. I'm more into doing stuff on the strip/downtown as opposed to "daytrip to the Grand Canyon" etc. Any show recommendations? We saw Zumanity and Penn & Teller last time we were in town together, both great.
submitted by LiveMas2016 to vegas [link] [comments]

Looking for a good poker room for a beginner

I'm looking for a $1/$2 No Limit Holdem cash game, and according to this, the following casinos on the Strip offer them:
I'm looking for a place where I can stretch a $100 buy-in and have some fun. Was hoping to find a place that doesn't have too my local grinders, as I'm sure they would knock out a guy like me out pretty fast. It would be my first time playing poker at a casino, so I just want to have a fun experience and mange to stay in the game for a while.
Also, is there a particularity good time of the day to go play?
Thanks!
EDIT: Thanks for all the responses!
EDIT 2: I will check out the Excalibur as my first pick. Thanks everyone!
submitted by GoingforIvey to vegas [link] [comments]

Evo Announcements Thread

  1. SFV
  2. Melee
  3. Sm4sh
  4. Guilty Gear Xrd Revelator
  5. MKX
  6. Pokken
  7. Killer Instinct
  8. Marvel
  9. Tekken 7
RIP Ultra
-Friday (July 15) and Saturday (July 16) at the LV Convention Center
-Sunday (July 17) Finals at Mandalay Bay Event CenteSports Arena (5 games)
SFV
Melee
MKX
Guilty Gear Xrd Revelator
Marvel
-You need to buy a ticket for each arena aka more McRibs needed
-There is a tram on the Convention Center side of things that runs from the MGM all the way to the Convention Center for those that still want to stay in a casino at the strip and not some whack ass alcohol free hotel. Also helps avoid drunk driving (all day pass is $12)
-Alternatively, the Westgate Las Vegas is right next to the Convention Center
https://www.vegas.com/transportation/las-vegas-monorails/
Book your room bois
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A.I. Security Cameras Are the Latest High-Tech Attempt to Combat Mass Shooters

In July, Shagaf Khan, a longtime member of the Al Noor Mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand, and president of the region’s Muslim association, froze as one gunman after another entered the house of worship. Just four months prior, the mosque had been ground zero for that country’s deadliest massacre, in which the attacker live-streamed on ­Facebook his shooting rampage that killed 51 and wounded 49.
This time, the guns were part of a drill. Police officers were simulating a siege on the mosque, brandishing a variety of firearms to test a new high-tech security system developed by Athena Security.
With the help of artificial intelligence, surveillance cameras mounted inside and outside the mosque recognized lethal threats within seconds. They set in motion a rapid emergency response, alerting authorities and ultimately the congregants inside of imminent danger. “We were impressed,” Khan says of the technology’s performance that day. “We saw all kinds of arms—whether it be a pistol or a larger gun. All of them were detected.”
Mass shootings like the one in New Zealand, and more recent ones in Dayton, El Paso, and Odessa, Texas, are prompting some businesses and schools to install A.I.-powered security systems. The hope is that the emerging technology will help save lives in a mass shooting, which, according to Mass Shooting Tracker, a crowdsourced database, occurs an average of at least once a day somewhere in the land of the free, home of the brave.
Chris Ciabarra, CTO of Athena Security, ­installs his firm’s security system at Archbishop Wood High School in Warminster, Pa.Courtesy of AthenaStill, there’s only so much cameras and computers can do to stop a determined gunman armed with an AR-15-style weapon. Furthermore, the technology is prone to occasional false positives, while critics worry about the privacy implications of monitoring for firearms anyone and everyone who happens to be walking by.
Whatever the case, investors are pouring money into intelligent security. Athena Security, a year-old startup based in Austin, has raised $5.5 million. The Israeli firm AnyVision, meanwhile, closed a $74 million funding round in June, and Canada’s Patriot One Technologies, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, has raised $87 million Canadian ($65 million U.S.).
The recent rise of A.I.-based security systems is tied to improvements in image recognition, a technology that tries to identify what’s in photographs or video stills. In this case, the goal is to zero in on what’s often easily overlooked—deadly weapons and suspicious behavior that signal an impending violent act.
Athena’s technology works by analyzing as little as three seconds of surveillance footage, or 90 individual frames of video. Its algorithms are trained to look for both dangerous objects and the menacing movements of individuals—say, a person brandishing a Glock pistol while approaching a school.
Critics worry about the privacy implications of monitoring for firearms anyone and everyone who happens to be walking by.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The tech will lock in on that scene, pulling in more frames to analyze before notifying the on-duty Athena technician or a security officer on-site to verify the threat. If the danger is real, the security staff can sound the alarm, locking down the school, office complex, or place of worship and preventing an armed attacker from entering.
Earlier this year, the company found just one weak spot: Its algorithms failed to spot the handgun or assault rifle being carried by a person 30 feet away and pointing straight at the camera. In every other scenario tested—the gun angled to the right or left, the gunman in motion with the gun, the weapon held at any angle within 25 feet of the camera—the detection rate was 100%.
Spotting guns is the feature that clients are most interested in, explains Chris Ciabarra, Athena’s cofounder and chief technology officer. But they also ask for harder-to-spot threats, which is why in September the company introduced updated software that’s supposed to home in on knives (over six inches) and fights (punching, kicking, pushing). The technology costs $100 monthly per camera.
What Athena tries to avoid is making its system so overzealous that it mistakes any shiny black object—an iPhone, say—for a handgun. Ciabarra says that newly installed technology may flag two or three false positives per camera per day that on-duty security staff must vet. “The alert pops up on a screen, and they click yes or no,” Ciabarra says. “The last thing we want is for police to be called to a scene when they’re not supposed to be.”
Patriot One, the Canadian company, uses a combination of machine learning and microwave-radar technology to spot hidden threats. Its sensors act as a kind of long-range metal detector that identifies concealed weapons, including guns, knives, and bombs.
With the help of microwave radar—the hardware for which can be hidden, as in these planters—and machine learning, this Canadian firm’s tech can spot and identify visible or hidden threats like guns, knives, and bombs.Courtesy of Patriot OneSignals that bounce off solid objects are instantly analyzed for a match in the company’s weapons database. The system’s machine learning distinguishes between the highly suspect (say, an assault rifle smuggled in a suitcase) and the benign (a mobile phone in a jacket pocket), and then, if necessary, alerts security personnel. “It’s all about smart, distributed, low-cost networked security,” says Martin Cronin, the company’s CEO.
Patriot One’s hardware is installed in schools, offices, and public venues including the Westgate Las Vegas Resort & Casino and the University of North Dakota at Grand Forks. It costs just under $50,000 per installation, plus an annual $10,000 fee.
Cronin, a former diplomat for the British Foreign Office, says interest in his company’s technology picked up significantly after the 2017 Mandalay Bay shooting in Las Vegas in which a lone gunman killed 58 and wounded 422. Cronin won’t get drawn into ­hypotheticals about whether Patriot One’s system, called PatScan, could have prevented it.
But, he says, that type of incident—weapons in bags brought into a hotel—is precisely what the technology is designed to prevent. “Yes, in principle, we will detect those and generate an alert so that security could respond before an incident could happen,” Cronin says.

Keeping Watch

A growing number of companies are selling A.I.-powered security systems that detect guns and other weapons.

Athena Security

Using image-recognition technology, this Austin firm’s security system analyzes surveillance video for firearms and knives.

Patriot One Technologies

With the help of microwave radar and machine learning, this Canadian firm’s tech can spot and identify visible or hidden threats like guns, knives, and bombs.

AnyVision

This Israeli firm has developed a “computer vision” platform that works with most networked security cameras to recognize faces and body types along with objects that resemble a security threat.
Using A.I. for security is fast becoming a hot-button issue. Digital-rights advocacy groups and politicians, from San Francisco’s board of supervisors to Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, have called for banning facial-­recognition algorithms for policing. In March, the Commercial Facial Recognition Privacy Act was introduced in the U.S. Senate, a bipartisan bill that could codify privacy rights, potentially limiting what A.I.-powered security systems can do.
“We need guardrails to ensure that as this technology continues to develop, it is implemented responsibly,” says Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who cosponsored the bill with Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).
Patriot One and Athena Security say that one of the biggest misconceptions about the use of their security systems is a subsequent loss of privacy. Both companies say their technologies don’t record, store, or share an individual’s biometric data.
But Cronin acknowledges that he gets a lot of questions about how Patriot One’s technology differs—if at all—from how, say, China uses facial-recognition technologies to track political foes. “To that I say, ‘This isn’t what this technology is about. It’s to keep people safe, in a public or a private environment,’ ” Cronin contends.
In Christchurch, Khan has other concerns. In the aftermath of the massacre, his job as one of the congregation’s administrative leaders has morphed into caretaker, counselor, and security chief. He’s just trying to restore a bit of normalcy.
Even with the new security system and a beefed-up police presence, some congregants are too scared to return. Khan doesn’t know if they’ll come back, but he’s beginning to feel better about the safety and well-being of those who have remained. No technology is foolproof, he says: “But at least we have these technologies in place that can help prevent this kind of thing happening.”
A version of this article appears in the October 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “High Tech Takes On Mass Shooters.”### More must-read stories from Fortune:
—The cheapest mobile plans for your iPhone 11
—What is quantum supremacy, and why is it such a computing milestone?
Beyoncé was sued for violating the Americans with Disabilities Act. And you could be, too
—Meet the women leading Netflix into [the streaming wars
](https://fortune.com/longform/women-netflix-streaming-wars/)—Why Discord is one of tech’s hottest startups__Catch up withData Sheet, Fortune’s daily digest on the business of tech.
* More Details Here
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Veteran's Day: Deals and Steals

If there is something you're aware of, that isn't on this list, mention it below. Make sure you call ahead to make sure the location in your area is participating in these offers.
It's not my fault if you go into a restaurant that isn't offering this deal, and you don't have enough money to pay your tab. Don't forget to tip your server.
The second half of this list is retail offers. There are even things to involve the families.
Food
Retail
submitted by LrankLcean to AirForce [link] [comments]

Veteran's Day: Deals and Steals

If there is something you're aware of, that isn't on this list, mention it below. Make sure you call ahead to make sure the location in your area is participating in these offers.
It's not my fault if you go into a restaurant that isn't offering this deal, and you don't have enough money to pay your tab. Don't forget to tip your server.
The second half of this list is retail offers. There are even things to involve the families.
Food
Retail
submitted by LrankLcean to army [link] [comments]

westgate casino in vegas video

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