So you've found a post, and it looks damn good - nicely formatted, seems to have a lot of fancy words, and you don't know how to even begin evaluating their theories. So, what do you do? Analyze their analysis! First, is the user reputable/legitimate, or is it a bot post? Check their user history - if they've been around for a while, and post to other forums, and have no massive gaps in their online-time, they're probably real. Second, if it's a real user, are they trying to shill something for market manipulation or pump&dumping? If so, they'll usually be banned/deleted very quickly, but if you're browsing /new DDs you'll need to be vigilant. Avoid penny stocks or anything where the goal is specifically purchase->effect-oriented. If the OP has proof of positions, and it doesn't look like a pump&dump, then at least they're buying into their own theory - and I trust theories people are willing to bet on as they posit them more than theories that are just like, "I don't wanna but good luck all". Third, the actual content of the post! Do you understand what they're pitching? If not, do the comments explain anything that might be confusing? Make sure you actually understand the theory you're buying into. If you understand it, the next question is, "how reasonable does this seem"? If it's something that's blindingly obvious even to a layman, it's possible that the market's already priced it in and no movements will be made based on the information. If it's totally far-fetched, like banking on a specific individual dying or lottery-level odds, probably worth skipping. The sweet spot, the ideal, the diamond in the rough, is finding DD that invokes new thoughts that no one has had, but are totally reasonable and likely. Read comments, see what the consensus is, and pay special attention to dissent - dissent is way more useful than agreement for furthering a theory. Read their sources, or do independent research - see if other factors support their theory, see how well-known or popular the theory is already, and evaluate based on that. Now if you decide that you like the DD, and may act on it, you have to choose how you act on it. And this is the very, very hard part - opportunity cost and cost-benefit analysis. Is buying into this new theory superior to any existing theories you're currently acting on? Does it match your risk profile? Is it a stock DD, or an options recommendation? How much are you willing to gamble? What is your exit strategy? Can't help much here, that goes into actual financial advice, and I am not a financial advisor, just a "how to judge random idiots on the internet" expert. Let's say you don't like the DD - you're not gonna buy in. But what if you think that the person's crazy? What if you think their theories are not just baseless, but are actually wrong? You may choose to bet against the DD! And yes, you can do this with anything you read - you can decide that they're stupid, fuck em, and bet against them. Their loss porn becomes your gains, and vice-versa. Investing in inversing bad DD is a valid option - they're buying up options, you can sell some options, or buy puts below their calls, or so on. Retail trading is mostly treated as noise by hedge funds - but just because it's not your day job to trade doesn't mean you can't do research that hedge funds may miss. As retail investors, it's extremely difficult to have a superior trading strategy or more general market knowledge than the professionals, but we can figure out niche opportunities that the higher-level analyzers miss. If you intimately know an industry, or have a theory that you think financial institutions would miss, or think you're just smarter or more well-informed than them, absolutely develop a DD post (aka a market theory) and share or act on it. tl;dr: If you're the kind of nerd that scrolls to tl;drs and makes decisions based on that, then all the other shit I said is irrelevant, :rocket: :diamond: :ape:
Sonasoft [$SSFT] Autonomous AI Platform Company: Undervalued and Underrated
NuGene is Sonasoft's autonomous AI platform TLDR; Sonasoft was founded by Silicon Valley tech veteran Andy Khanna in 2003, with an initial focus on data migration, storage, and management. With AI tech growing and big data booming, SSFT began to invest in AI tech and in 2018 acquired IT solutions company Cornerstone and AI company Hotify. This turned Sonasoft into an E2E, A to Z, IT, Big Data, AI, and ML company offering a unique set of solutions for customers. Currently, the company posts $13M+ in revenue a year, with a market cap of <$80M. This is a hidden gem. This is incredibly undervalued right now and a strong buy and hold. SSFT currently trades at $0.17 I wanted to create this write-up because there is some additional detail from Sonasoft's robust 2020 for you all to absolutely chew on before buying in. Please find an incredibly thorough DD here.
A focus on AI
Put simply, Sonasoft focuses on delivering AI solutions for customers. Sonasoft's Unified AI platform, NuGene, lies at the heart of this strategy. NuGene simplifies how developers and data scientists build and deploy AI bots. The Sonasoft ‘bot factory’ streamlines the process of creating and deploying AI models. This starts with defining the problem and gathering the data, then it uses its own AI engine to build a robust model. Finally, it simplifies the process of deploying the model in production. This allows companies to benefit from AI without needing to employ large teams of data scientists. Uniquely, NuGene is capable of dealing with extremely rich and diverse datasets without the need to simplify the raw data. This means the resulting AI models are far more robust against bias. Data analytics and AI/ML need only continues to grow
In Q4 of 2020, Sonasoft hired veteran ML engineers and data scientists. This allowed a focus on taking NuGene from MVP (minimum viable product) to a fully-fledged product. Real money is being made. The Head of Engineering is Max Lee, who has an extensive background in creating hardware and AI solutions for chatbots, signal processing, and computer vision. He epitomizes the way the whole engineering team works. He is able to solve problems by applying his multi-disciplinary knowledge that spans mathematics, science, engineering, and ethics. The Head of Data Science is Caroline Zaborowski. She brings years of experience applying data science to solve complex problems in the online gambling industry. Prior to that, she completed a Ph.D. in Astrophysics at the University of Oxford. She ensures Sonasoft applies rigorous standards of data science, which has allowed NuGene’s performance to improve significantly.
New Management Team
2020 saw significant changes in the management of Sonasoft. This started in December of 2019 when Mike Khanna was promoted to CEO. One of his first priorities was to bring in a new C-suite with the experience to complete Sonasoft’s transformation that began 2 years earlier. Rob Baumert, Sonasoft’s CFO since Feb 2020, brings over two decades of experience to the Sonasoft management team. Prior to Sonasoft, he spent 7 years at RedBubble, serving variously as Chief Operations Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Director of Financial Planning & Analysis. Over that time, they saw sales surge from $3MM to $143MM. INSANE! Paul Clauson, appointed as COO Q4 2020, has worked with ML engineers and data scientists for the better part of a decade. He focuses his time on building world-class teams and go-to-market strategy. He has been instrumental in building Sonasoft’s new engineering team. Josh Rose was hired as Chief of Staff in Q4. He has a background in private equity. This experience has been invaluable as Sonasoft focuses on building new strategic partnerships. He has also been spearheading Sonasoft’s latest successful round of fundraising.
Sonasoft signs strategic partnership with a multi-billion dollar financial services company
2020 saw Sonasoft sign some key strategic partnerships. The biggest of these will see Sonasoft building AI bots for one of the world’s largest financial services companies, FIDELITY INVESTMENTS. This will place AI analytics at the very center of the financial data ecosystem. Clients of the partnership will see a transformation in how they can leverage financial data. This will see them transition to predictive and prescriptive analytics, making them more competitive than ever before. 2020 also saw Sonasoft complete a key AI project with Delaware Electric Cooperative (DEC). DEC is one of the largest utility cooperatives in the US. DEC sources its power from several providers. One of the biggest costs to their business is coincident peaks, which happen when there is a surge in demand. To try and control these costs, DEC issues “beat the peak” notices to its members, asking them to reduce consumption. Sonasoft developed a set of AI bots that are able to correctly predict these coincident peaks. In the first two months of going live, the bots demonstrated their ability to deliver annual cost savings of up to $1.3MM. Material Definitive Agreement with Fidelity to develop AI solutions Agreement announced in June 2020 with Google via their SEC filings
Sonasoft goes all in on AI
In 2020, Sonasoft continued its pursuit of completing its pivot from a services company to a pure AI company. This pivot from Sonasoft included an aggressive divestment policy as part of the long-term AI strategy. E-Connect Software Inc. and Sonavault were both sold to previous Company Officers, allowing Sonasoft to focus much more attention on AI, as well as saving some $250k in annual burn.
Recently began revenue generation. Exports to multiple markets, including EU market where regulatory environment is more stable (i.e. long-term cash flow benefit, imo). Diverse set of revenue streams including proprietary genetics, cannabis derivatives, cosmetics, CO2 oil extraction. Continued to expand facilities and raise capital despite COVID.
Just closed $1M capital raise, bringing in Facundo Garreton, well-known venture capitalist.
Holds licenses for both THC and CBD products. Operations in both Colombia and Argentina.
Strong leadership team with South American regulatory/political contacts, pharma sales, and startup experience. However, some senior management churn indicative of activist investing.
Operations: Multiple developing revenue streams across cannabis industry, including: CO2 oil extraction services and sales, genetic research and licensing of both low- and high-THC varietals, cloning and sales to growers, and cosmetics production. 2019: Basically a dedicated production-scaling year. Engaged in the expansion of cultivation area, development of contract grower relationships, and establishing CO2 oil extraction line w/ capacity of 75000kg/year dried flower at EU-GMP standards. Secured a distribution agreement with EU pharmacies. 2020: was marked by the establishment of product lines (oil, cosmetics) and the initial generation of revenue from selling cloned cuttings of proprietary genetic strands to growers and some initial cosmetics. Additional capacity expansion from the purchase of BBV labs in Argentina, a joint venture with Argentinian state cannabis company, Cannava. 2019-2020 marked harvesting of first commercial crop. 2021: 1H 2021 forecast to begin sales of CBD-only and CBD/THC extractives, final approval of proprietary THC genetics, sales of tolling services for oil extraction, and ramp-up of cosmetics sales. Cultivation Costs/Yield: Long-term cultivation costs at $0.13 CAD/gram compared to $1+ for ACB/Aphria and $3.50+ for TLRY. Outdoor cultivation - which is where BBRRF is focused long-term - is $0.06 CAD/gram. Why is this possible? Climate advantages, Outdoor cultivation and contract growing. South American producers have a tremendous long-term advantage over indoor growers in the US and Canada, due to extremely low labor costs (pre-existing sharecropper models in other agricultural goods drive prices down), and a warmer, drier climate than their North American counterparts. Plus outdoor growing has lower capital investment requirements per gram produced. Broader macro political note: Colombia is trying to integrate previous FARC members into mainstream society. IMO, this means exportable cash crops are likely to be pushed by the government. Cannabis cultivation stands to gain substantially in that environment. The reason isn't the prettiest - lots of farmers that depended on or were forced into the FARC-sponsored drug trade will be looking for new crops - but it is a durable reason to think the political environment will favor cannabis to reduce US drug war pressure, and integrate former FARC members and dependents into the Colombian economy. Financials:
Recent capital raise of $1 million from Garreton when brought in on Board/Interim CEO provided significant bump to cash runway.
Just began revenue generation in Q3 2020 - sales of cloned cultivars to associate growers @ 40% gross margin + some introductory cosmetic sales. Still small but compares with 30% gross margin in the legal cannabis industry. Bulk oil sales expected 1st half 2021.
Substantial loss/cash burn reduction over 2020. Quarterly loss of $1.1mln Q3 2020 vs. $2.5mln Q3 2019. Picture is similar for 9-month period (loss of 3.7 mln 2020 vs. 9.2 mln 2019). Prior losses attributable to capacity expansion initiatives.
Debt/Equity Ratio: 0.44 ($2.35 million liabilities, $5.30 million equity).
CEO and Board President: Facundo Garreton - "Mr. Garreton is a successful entrepreneur in the fields of innovation, technology and life sciences, and a former member of Congress in Argentina. His successful track record as an entrepreneur includes founding InvertirOnline.com, one of Latin America’s largest online brokerage firms, as well as founding and serving as director of SociaLab and Sistema B, the most important platform for social entrepreneurs in Latin America. Mr. Garreton also has strategic involvement with other cannabis companies including YVY Life Sciences in Uruguay and Flow Kana in California. Mr. Garreton is a director of various successful companies such as: YVY Life Sciences, Pachama.com, VU Security, Untech.bio, Bulltick, GoodPeople, Inipop.com and others. Also, he is an investor in companies such as ClaraFoods, TheNotCompany, Blue Planet Ecosystems, Memphis Meat, Cambridge Crops, Electro-Active Technologies (EAT), Unbox Robotics, Prellisbio.com and MycoWorks."
CFO: Ian Atacan - " Mr. Atacan is a finance leader with more than 25 years of experience in business strategy development, valuations of M&A, debt and equity financing, divestitures and investment transactions, financial modeling, project management, competitive analysis and developing strategic investment recommendations. He has worked with renowned international companies such as Sprint, DHL Worldwide Express, and Procter & Gamble. Most recently, Mr. Atacan was the Chief Financial Officer of Natura Naturals Holdings Inc., a Canadian cannabis company licensed for cultivation, production and bulk sales under the Cannabis Act of Canada, until its acquisition by Tilray Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) for $82 million. As Chief Financial Officer of Blueberries, Mr. Atacan brings entrepreneurial and financial acumen cultivated through business start-ups, recapitalizations, and expansion projects to drive national and international business growth."
CMO - Eduardo Molinari: Formerly with Abbott Labs and AbbVie (Abbott's pharma spinoff) in roles of steadily increasing responsibility. Indicates lots of experience marketing pharmaceutical products and contacts across the industry.
Experienced technical team including VP of Operations with experience at GlaxoSmithKline/Abbott (Carlos Maldonado); Medical Director with experience at Merck (Dr. Andres Vidal); and R&D Director with experience at PharmaCielo (Cristina Tora).
Note: One possible trouble spot - company has had a number of prior CEOs, including Patricio Stocker (formerly @ PharmaCielo), and then Camilo Villalba (resigned family issues) and Christian Toro (interim, was COO). I get the impression there has been some activist investor activity due to 2019 cash burn rate being excessive, but this is just a guess as there haven't been any clear corporate statements of why Stocker or Villalba left. I suspect Stocker was pushed out after building some initial contacts with export markets. However, the CFO and CMO are both quite experienced and bringing in Garreton is a major plus. Also the R&D Director from PharmaCielo is still there, as are both longer-term ex-Abbott senior people, so this may have been mostly amicable activist investing. There were also some board resignations/replacements when Garreton became CEO, one of which was Andres Vidal, still employed as medical director, so I suspect some of these moves were transparency/governance-based as the company scales up. Note 2: Former Board Member: Fabio Valencia Cossio - former Minister of the Interior under Uribe. Resigned from board when Garreton was named CEO, along with a few others. But to my knowledge he hasn't disposed of his shares. Coupled with Garreton, and BBRRF's partnership with a state-owned Argentinian cannabis company, I see this as a sign of broader political support for the company. Sources:
Analyst Research (FRC, need an account to view full reports, but free)
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. All investment decisions taken at your own risk. Position: Currently long 38,000 shares @ $0.105. Previously was long 70,000 shares @ $0.04. (Did some profit taking @$0.115 in my IRA in case of a re-trace, rebought).
Hi all, Two weeks ago, The Boys published their video on gacha games. This inspired me to conduct a survey on this subreddit on your thoughts and experiences with gacha games. Thanks to your support, there is a lot of data to sift through and a lot of interesting results so far. Due to IRL deadlines, I wasn't able to examine the data in full capacity, so I will be posting results in two or more sections. This first section will primarily deal with the surface-level headline data. I will also cover some of the reasonings and inner workings of what went into the survey and results (for those interested in the data scientist portions of things). A subsequent post/posts in the near future will cover topics I wasn't able to get to as well as more technical analysis of the data (regression, model-building, etc.) These posts will be presented in a semi-formal fashion, i.e., I'll lay out the posts like a research paper but I'll add personal interjections from time to time. (If you want to really get into the meat and potatoes, you can just skip to the "Results and Discussion" section.) With that said, allow me to introduce my initial findings:
Our Trash Taste in Gacha Games: An Informal Community Survey Analysis on the Nature of TrashTaste's Experience Regarding Gacha Games
Abstract The recent rise of "gacha games" has been bolstered by a number of intersecting trends. These include the mass popularity of anime or anime-like products, the increasing ubiquity of smartphones, and introduction of lootboxing mechanics by game publishers as a means of profiting off "free to play" or "freemium" games in the digital sphere. A recent episode from the anime-centric podcast "Trash Taste" explored their experiences and opinions regarding such games. This post intends to further explore the general sentiment of gacha games through the podcast's official subreddit, TrashTaste, and discuss the results. Motivation A little bit about my background. Anime, anime-like products, and manga have been a huge part in my life. I remember watching Detective Conan, Pokemon, and Keroro Gunso and being introduced to Gundam and MapleStory when I was young. Since it seems to be a trend on this subreddit, I'll throw my hat in the ring and show my 3x3: [If you want further discussion about these and other related series, feel free to comment below or DM me] From left to right, up to down: Ah! My Goddess, Hayate the Combat Butler , The World God Only Knows, Carnival Phantasm (+ Fate franchise), Pastel, Q.E.D.: Shoumei Shuuryou, Yandere Kanojo, Accomplishments of the Duke's Daughter, The Gamer As I mentioned in my first post about the survey, I am a graduate student working on my masters for data science. I also completed a bachelors in economics. All of this combined made me not only interested in gacha games as an avid consumer, but also as a research subject. The Boys simply were the catalyst for spurring this project. Data Collection and Survey Construction Data was collected via Google Forms on the TrashTaste subreddit. The post that contained the survey was released several hours after the video was posted. Survey responses were collected for a period of 1 week from January 22 to January 28 (though there was a massive decrease in the rate of respondents after the fourth day). The survey was constructed based on my own experiences with gacha games as well as general demographics that would be useful to examine on a macro scale. Regarding demographics: asking respondents on several aspects of demographics is a tricky subject since not only does it mean divulging a group of variables known as protected classes, these could be markers that could reidentify anonymized people; thus, I stuck to "safer" questions (age and gender). I then asked which otaku material was preferred. The next set of questions dealt with those who were currently playing gacha games. I asked the number of currently played games, which ones (with an open-ended aspect since I knew I would miss some) and the top 3 games. For each of the top 3 games, I asked how long they have played, which server, how long the game was around, how consistent did they play, how far they were, their current level of commitment, how much they spent (open-ended), spending title, whether the game had PVP, hype moments (some open-ended), and why they play (some open-ended). Finally, based on the central theme of The Boys' video, I asked whether games should be regulated and what their policy recommendation would be (open-ended). Limitations and Oversights This survey is, obviously, limited by the research environment and my experiences. Academic papers have pondered about the effectiveness regarding survey reliability using subreddits, which may be interesting and impactful from a statistically-minded formal research. In addition, there were a total of 678 respondents which, while certainly plenty in any regular volunteer statistical number crunching, pales in comparison to the 104K members in this subreddit alone; this is going to affect the power analysis of these results. Submitting the survey hours after the video was posted (when the user activity likely peaks) likely limited user exposure. Therefore, this post will be much closer to the next video. Then there are questions I didn't ask due to oversight on my part - I'm only human.
The biggest oversight, pointed out by u/Mareek, was
Welp I answered that I don't play any gatcha games, but it didn't give me a chance to say why I don't play them or if I played any before. There should at least be a question for why/why not play them.
I probably would have asked something like:
If you responded "no," why do you not play gacha games? - Not interested - Not trying to get addicted - Trying to stop gambling addiction - Bad luck/greed sensor - Used to play, but lost interest
2) As pointed out by u/Paoda and u/gzavwunt, I forgot to add visual novels into the "primary source of otaku source material" question! As a Fate fan, this was a massive oversight I regret (don't worry, I did at least watch the full visual novel playthroughs of Fate/Stay Night and Fate/Hollow Ataraxia). 3) There were a few questions that were open-ended that in hindsight definitely backfired. The biggest ones were the "how long has the game lasted" ( u/ShinyMilo ) and "how much you spent" questions. They are a mess to deal with, even with all the regex expressions I know, so I ultimately had to throw them out. The former in the end was merely a curiosity and the latter was somewhat salvaged by the "spending title" questions, so I'm not too bothered by it, but something I'll keep in mind in the future. Results and Discussion Here are the initial results, and I think there's some interesting trends we can look at. First, let's look at the demographics.
Let's start with age distribution:
Figure 1 There were 678 respondents. There appears to be a considerable right skew (aka a skew towards a younger audience). There are a lot of zoomers among the respondents, though there are a considerable number of millennials as well. 2) Next, take a look at gender distribution: Figure 2. Male: 87%, Female: 9.3%, Nonbinary: 1%, Prefer not to say: 2.7% Well, somewhat not surprisingly, of the 678 respondents, an overwhelming 87% identified as males. Connor as "the 93%"? More like the survey as "the 9.3%." 3) For the final aspect of demographics, let's look at the distribution of answers for "What is your preferred consumption of otaku source material?" Figure 3. (to the nearest tenth of a percent) Anime and Manga Equally: 33.8%, Anime: 32.4%, Manga: 16.7%, Anime, Manga, and Light Novel Equally: 9.7%, Manga and Light Novel Equally: 4.1%, Anime and Light Novel Equally: 2.2%, Light Novel: 1.0% Of the 678, respondents, 32.4% prefer to watch anime, 16.7% prefer to read manga, and 33.8% prefer to consume anime and manga equally. Light novel readers (either as the preferred choice or read it equally with other mediums) amount to about 17%. Hot take here: I am one of the 16.7% that prefer to read manga/manhwa (pitchforks in the comments), but only because there are so many series that I like that either have only become adapted recently (Horimiya, HameFura) or haven't been adapted yet (Shuumatsu no Valkyrie). Next, let's look at gacha by the numbers.
First, let's look at the number of gacha games people play:
Figure 4 Of the 678 respondents, 232 did not currently play and gacha games, 194 did currently play 1 game, 117 did currently play 2 games, and so forth. The most surprising finding was that there are a few people that currently play at least 10 games, with one even playing 17! 2) Next, let's look at the top 20 games that were the favorite, second favorite, third favorite, and overall most popular:
"...Yet in most companies, the so-called “80/20 rule” applies: 80 percent of a data scientist’s valuable time is spent simply finding, cleansing, and organizing data, leaving only 20 percent to actually perform analysis." - IBM
Figure 5 Holy cow, the quote above really hit for this particular question. There were about 75 replacements I had to do to make the game title uniform, with 15 related to Princess Connect alone! As for the analysis: you read that correctly. There are a whopping 103 total gacha game titles that the 446 respondents play. Genshin Impact comes as the clear frontrunner for the most favorite game, second-most favorite game, third-most favorite game, and overall most popular game. However, the top 5 games in each category are the same: Genshin Impact, Fate/Grand Order, Arknights, Azur Lane, and Fire Emblem Heroes. Garnt is certainly attracting his Fate peers here, including me. As a side note, I have to give props to respondents who were honest about their stances. There were a few that put 'H***** Gacha Game,' 'Taimanin,' and 'AGA' (Anti-Gacha Army). 3) Next, let's look at the distribution of how each person categorizes themselves terms of spending: Figure 6 This is a very interesting finding. For their most favorite game, about half of the respondents were free to play, a third were minnows, about a sixth were dolphins, and the small bit left were whales. As we move towards less favored games, the number of F2Pers increase and the number of whales decrease until there's none left for the third-most favorite game. It's an important lesson for natural resources and gacha game publishers alike: overfishing can lead to less species diversity. As an aside, I am personally a dolphin for Fate GO. I have no qualms sharing that I spend some cash rolling for (ironically) Gilgamesh and NP5ing Sheba during Gilfest 2018 or even spending some New Year's allowance on Spishtar last month. fite me 4) Next, let's look at what aspects made the gacha game most "hype:" Figure 7 The top answer was the introduction of new characters, anniversary events, and animation/art. It seems that many go for the "Anni is the Planni" strategy. 5) Next, let's look at the reasons why respondents play or continue to play their gacha game(s) [Note: I aggregated the numbers from favorite/second favorite/third favorite, so some users are double or triple counted, so numbers may look a little inflated. I will work on this for a future post]: Figure 8. Top 15 answers. The top answer for why respondents play or continue to play their gacha game was for "the waifus/husbandos" followed by "I enjoy this as a standalone game" and "I love the source material." The 114 of you who chose "Because jokes are the deepest lore," I see you Fate fans. Probably the most interesting and concerning reasons that were not shown here are the sizable number of people who responded with either learned helplessness of their situation or frustration with the gacha-industry complex. These include "Sunk cost fallacy" (shown on the graph), frustration over rerolling, feeling like it's "a second job," stating that they're "addicted and can't quit," or flat out "dunno, it's kina there." The Future of Gacha Games Learning about these trends are good and all, but how do we consolidate these opinions into actionable thoughts? This is where the last half of The Boys' video about what to do comes in. Here's the community's reaction.
First, it was asked "In your opinion, should gacha games be regulated?" 678 respondents responded:
Figure 9 83.8% of respondents said "Yes," 5% said "No,", and 11.2% said they need to do more research to come a conclusion. 2) Finally, I asked respondents an open-ended optional question that "If you could have a serious discussion about gacha games with a gacha game developer or lawmaker, what is the one policy recommendation you would suggest?" Surprisingly, 473 people responded to the question. In the given timeframe, I could not read through all of the suggestions made; I will make sure to point out the most salient ones in the next post. In lieu of this, I decided to resort to a "quick and dirty trick" in natural language processing: n-grams! Simply put, I first removed common stopwords such as "you," "have", etc., and tokenized each response (i.e. separated each response into a list of word "units"). I then counted the frequency that each set of consecutive words appeared in each response. I counted frequency of the top 20 unigrams (one word), bigrams (2 words) and trigrams (3 words). Here is the result: Table 1 This is incredible stuff. The top two unigrams are "limit" and "spending," and other frequent unigrams include "gambling," "amount," and "time." Bigrams tell a broader story, with the top bigram being "(spending, limit)." There are other bigrams that expand upon policy recommendations such as "(hard, limit)", "(gambling, addiction)", "(drop, rates)," and "(pity, system)." Finally, looking at trigrams, we get an even fuller picture: the top trigram is "(limit, much, spend)." Other prominent trigrams include "(hard, limit, spending)," "(thing, connor, said)," and "(treat, like, gambling)." While the suggestions of limiting spending are quite frequent (following the footsteps of Connor), this is a fairly well-researched topic in the realm of behavioral economics. In particular, it looks at the encompassing topic of intertemporal choice. This is a pretty complex and field-specific topic that is too long to discuss in entirety in this post, but I'll boil down the critical points relevant to gacha games. [WARNING: some math ahead] First, say that you have a set budget that you're going to spend over several periods of time. When we spend money in a time period, get gain joyfulness (called "utility" or simply "U") at that time period. Second, we typically discount the amount of utility we get in the future. We usually assign this as a set rate called the discount factor ( δ ) . Thus, we get the following equation:
This simply means the total utility we get over a time period is the sum of all utilities of all periods based on today. All the above is considered in "classical economics" as exponential discounting. This assumes that
people have a constant discount factor and are impatient (δ < 1),
that people treat amounts as "bursts" of consumption," and
that utility is linear in amount.
However, economists that study behavioral economics show that some of these assumptions are flawed through though experiments and empirical results. One way this has manifested into policy action is the concept of "nudge theory" by Richard Thaler. This suggests that consumer behavior can be influenced by small suggestions and positive reinforcements; the argument is that it reduces market failure and encourages desirable actions. However, this is hotly debated ethically as being paternalistic and may not even work. Another theory brought about via behavioral economics is the idea of "present-bias preferences" by Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin. The idea is that when people consider tradeoffs between two future moments, present bias gives more weight to the earlier future moment. In this scenario, we have two types of people: naifs and sophisticates. Sophisticates know that they'll have self-control problems in the future, so they plan ahead while naifs do not see the self-control problems. Depending on if there is a cost or a reward, these two types of people will "cave in" at different times. In general, the utility function (called β-δ preferences) is as follows:
For all t, Ut (u_t, u_(t+1),...,u_T) = δt u_t + β ∑ δτ + u_τ |t+1 < τ < T where 0 < β, δ <= 1 β is the present bias, and β=1 makes equation exponential discounting.
How do these relate to gacha games? Well, the former (nudging) is like the third party (iTunes store, Google Play) directly intervening on your behalf saying that you can only spend so-and-so this month. The latter (present bias) puts the self-imposed limit in your own hands, which a third party adds as a restriction. Consider these aspects in future discussions regarding regulations surrounding gacha games. [it's been a year since I've been fully immersed in this stuff, so econ folks please check if the explanations are suitable] Ending Remarks I hope these initial results illustrated some fascinating aspects of how our subreddit has viewed gacha games. I know that there are a few questions that I haven't covered here due to lack of time, so look forward the next part of the survey results! Let me know if there are specific statistical analyses you would like for me to examine in the comments. If you want to put friend requests for the gacha games I'm playing [Fate GO (JP), OPTC (JP) Dokkan (GBL)], DM me. In addition, I'm thinking about releasing a clean and anonymized version of the data in csv form not only as a measure of transparency, but also if you want to do your own data manipulation. If you (the community) approve at over 75%, then I will publish it in the next post.
ACAC Spac (PlayStudios): A Solid Risk Reward Longer Term Play (Long)
Hey guys, I have a bit of a long DD on ACAC / Playstudios. You can read the text below. If you want to see the full post with all the nice pictures, you can check it out here. I was too lazy to upload each picture individually to Imgur. Apologies in advance. I've seen numerous people on Reddit compare the ACAC / Playstudios SPAC to Skillz, and some even to Draftkings. I think this is mainly because they're all in the online gaming / gambling industry, but aside from that, the companies themselves are quite different. I think a more apt comparison should be between Playstudios and Playtika (Ticker: PLTK), since they operate in the same vertical, compete against one another in mobile slots games, and Playtika has publicly available financial data in which I will be making comparisons against. Playtika Analysis You can find Playtika's prospectus here First and foremost, Playtika is one of the leaders in the mobile casino space. They have an assortment of games, and they themselves are diversifying into more casual games (similar to what Playstudios says they are trying to do), but their bread and butter are casino games, and the ones that make the most money for them are slots. Slotomania, House of Fun, and Caesars Slots are all mobile slots games, and as you can see from the above, they generate a significant portion of Playtika's revenues (roughly 50% of their 2020 revenues). OK, so why do I keep bringing up Playtika? Well, they had a very interesting graph that shows how much of their revenues come from different segments of their user base, based on when they acquired those users. What this chart is saying is that 45% of their revenues came from users acquired from 2013 and earlier! This is insane! They have such high user retention and user LTVs, that they're still monetizing a portion of their users that they acquired from 7 years ago. If we go up to 2017, then roughly 75% of their revenues come from users acquired 2017 and earlier! This is important because Playtika's oldest games are all slots games. So this is telling us that users that play mobile slots games, they tend to stay with those games for extremely long periods of time, and if they do stick with them, they spend a lot of money! This is great news since the vast majority of Playstudio's revenues come from mobile slots games. If you look at Playtika's financials, you'll notice pretty nice revenue growth. However, a lot of that is non-organic, and was accomplished through M&A. This was because in 2016, Playtika was acquired by a consortium of Chinese game companies for $4.4 billion (including Giant Network, a well known gaming company in China), and they need to make revenue numbers higher to have a better story to sell for the IPO. And part of their strategy was to diversify into casual games, and they did so by acquiring about 15 companies since 2016, including Wooga (developer of June's Journey, a very profitable find hidden objects mobile game) and Supertreat (developer of Solitaire Grand Harvest, a profitable card game). However, one of the caveats of casual games is that the ARPPU (average revenue per paying user) is lower, and retention is lower than casino games. I did my own calculations on Playtika's ARPPU for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you can see the noticeable downtrend. This was obviously not disclosed in the prospectus. Only ARPDAU (average revenue per daily active user) was disclosed. My belief is that even though ARPPU and retention are lower, maybe the market is giving a higher multiple to casual games. I believe that even though online gambling is beginning to see legalization in many states, and more and more people are starting to be open to it, there is still a bit of a social stigma associated with it, and certain investors may be wary to investing in a pure "casino" play. That's why Playtika is making such a concerted effort to move away from purely casino games, and positioning itself as an mobile entertainment company. Another reason is also the immense competition and high user acquisition costs, but Playtika has shown that they are more than able to execute on a long term strategy here. Playstudios Analysis Before jumping into anything else, I want to go straight to Playstudio's financials. The reason is because I think there's a lot of fluff here, and I want people to know the bullshit. But even when you see through the bullshit, the downside is still mitigated enough to warrant this play. So first off, take any numbers you see from 2022 with a grain of salt. No one knows what's going to happen this year, let alone two years in the future, and in my eyes, those 2022 numbers look extremely unrealistic. Revenue growth will probably not be that high, unless they make some big acquisitions, and EBITDA margin expansion probably won't be that fast. Revenue Growth Playstudios is planning on launching a Bingo and an RPG game, and their plan is to aggressively spend on UA (User Acqusition) in 2021. Their hope is that revenues will scale up with their UA, and by 2022, they can lower their UA spend a bit, and continue to monetize the new games exceptionally well, maybe at an even better rate than 2021. I think this is a bit farfetched, especially in such a competitive space as Bingo. I've done analysis on Bingo games before, and some of those games have also been around for 8 to 10 years, and they can't expect to just launch a game and have it ramped up to their expected revenue in a year's time. Development for those games requires game designers, people who are very good at math, product designers, and a many other people, which can make the development timeline quite long (at least a few months, for a more finished product, I think at least half a year for these guys). I think a more plausible scenario is that they acquire a smaller Bingo player, and then begin optimizing that game, and add in their own loyalty rewards, as that's the quickest way to ramp up revenues post IPO. My guess is revenues are not going to ramp up as quickly as they expect, and they'll see limited revenue growth here, and still mainly see some growth from better monetizing their slots players. I think by 2022, somewhere between $350 million to $400 million in revenues is more reasonable, and I'd probably lean towards the lower end of that range. Margin Expansion In terms of margin expansion, I think the decrease in cost of sales is doable. It seems like there is some extra fat there that they can trim as they scale. The cost of sales is mainly the tax that Apple and Google charges when users make a purchase through their respective stores, and this is a flat 30%. I doubt they'll get it less than 30% any time soon, but that will probably be through getting their whales to make purchases outside of the Google Play Store or App Store, and using a much cheaper payment processor. I think a long term goal of 20 - 25% for UA spend is reasonable. I'm OK with these numbers, though they may need to spend more initially to ramp up new games. One of the benefits of their loyalty rewards program is that they can have higher retention, and this might be a way for them to lower their UA spend, since people may be more willing to tell their friends about a free trip or prize they won through a mobile game. Another reason I'm OK with the UA spend is because it seems like they have a pretty knowledgeable UA team. I have access to App Annie, a data analytics company that tracks mobile apps, and I checked out the download history for POP! Slots, one of Playstudio's mobile games. You'll notice that US downloads spiked quite a bit in March. This is right when COVID-19 was beginning to spike in the US, and people began working from home. In the mobile app world, many apps had spikes in downloads in March and April 2020 because there was a much larger pool of users looking to download apps. CPAs came down, and companies that had strong UA teams were able to capture a lot of these new users. Thus, this tells me that Playstudios UA team was at least aware of ongoing trends in the mobile app space, and they were able to capitalize by gaining more users during that period of time. The biggest issue I have is with the "All Other Expenses." I don't know why it's this high (R&D and G&A shouldn't be that high), and Playstudios definitely needs to do some expense cutting here. While this has the most room to cut, it may be the hardest since I'm guessing a lot of that cost is from legacy employees. But if they can get this to around 30% by 2022, I'll be happy. Playstudios Has No Daily Active Users (DAU) Growth This is a common issue I see raised on Reddit and I want to address it here. Below is another chart from App Annie, which has DAU estimates. As you can see, DAU has remained pretty flat for the past 2 years, roughly between 150K and 200K users. But have you considered that revenues were actually increasing during this time? This means that Playstudios is becoming more efficient at monetizing their current users (getting more money out of older players), or their user acquisition team is targeting more profitable users. And this is just how the game is played in the mobile apps world. Users will eventually get sick of a game and stop playing. Not many games can count on users organically finding their game, and continuing to play indefinitely. To maintain a certain DAU, companies generally have to spend money on UA to maintain that user base. It becomes a business where you are calculating how much you are spending on UA, and whether the LTV and retention are good enough that you can make money in the long run from those users. You can think of it as an ROI on your marketing spend. And this is especially true for mobile game apps. If it were a social app, then yes, something like the network effect can come into play, and UA spend would be much lower. But for Playstudios, maintaining a steady DAU is actually a sign that their UA team knows what they're doing, and they're able to maintain a profitable and highly efficient business. It's actually a positive that they can maintain their DAU, and even INCREASE their revenues during that period. End Game? I don't actually know how this will end up. I don't give price targets cause I have no idea how the markets will value this company. But I can provide a few data points so that you can make your own decisions. From a multiples standpoint, Playstudios is cheap on a revenue multiple basis compared to Playtika, and is about the same from an EBITDA multiple basis. I personally don't think that Playstudios is a play that's going to 5X. Hell, even 3X I think will be a stretch. But, they do have a loyalty program that will help lower their UA costs, and extend the lifespan of their users. And they are moving into more types of games to diversify their revenue source. The reason I like this play is because I think the downside is heavily limited. The lifespan of casino slots players are so long, and the revenues are pretty stable (even growing), that there isn't an immediate risk that revenues will all of a sudden drop 30%, as is the case with lots of other mobile game companies. Add on top of this the potential for new revenue growth drivers from Bingo and RPG games, and the potential for margin expansion, that this is an easy 30-50% upside from current prices with almost minimal downside. One last minor bit, is that I'm sure lots of people missed out on the hype surrounding Draftkings and Skillz, and I'm sure there are some retail investors that will look for any type of casino / mobile gaming / gambling deals, and may jump on this as well. My feeling is that there is also a potential upside from the hype or FOMO factor. Anyway, this is my analysis on Playstudios / ACAC, hope you guys enjoy. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. These are my personal views and analysis on Playstudios. Please do your own due diligence. Disclosure: I own 400 shares of ACAC.
There are some heavy hitters on GME's Board and in the C-Suite. IMHO, the company should have spoken out about what's happening regarding their stock. They should also have a plan to address changes in the marketplace re Covid19, the push for digital and cryptocurrency, etc. Positive statements from them would improve the stability of the stock. Why have they been silent throughout this entire event? Wouldn't they speak out against the disparaging remarks from various HF reps in recent weeks which have negatively impacted the value of the stock? Or, do they agree with the HFs that the stock is worthless, which would suggest that GME is behind a pump and dump which has enriched them and left us holding the bag? This is the kind of letter we need to send, en mass, to the Chairman of the Board: Kathy Vrabeck, and to the media.
George ShermanChief Executive Officer and Director George E. Sherman is the chief executive officer of GameStop. He was appointed to this role in April 2019.George is a member of GameStop’s Board of Directors, a seat he has held since April 2019.George brings to GameStop more than 25 years of senior management experience serving in a variety of retail leadership roles for several major retail brands like Advance Auto Parts, Best Buy, Target and Home Depot.Prior to joining GameStop, George served as CEO of Victra, the largest exclusive authorized retailer for Verizon Wireless products and services. Before this, he served as president and interim CEO for Advance Auto Parts where he was responsible for more than 4,000 stores, merchandising, marketing, IT, supply chain and commercial sales.George also served as president of Best Buy Services, where he led consumer services, small- and medium-business capabilities, channel partnerships and Best Buy for business. Prior to Best Buy, he ran the operations and home services divisions of Home Depot and spent 14 years with the Target Corporation in various leadership roles.He received his master’s degree from Central Michigan University and served as an officer in the United States Air Force for nearly seven years. George is an active community volunteer with veteran’s causes and currently serves on the board of directors of Building Homes for Heroes, which builds mortgage free homes catered to the unique needs of disabled veterans.
Jim BellEVP and Chief Financial Officer Jim Bell serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for GameStop, a role he was appointed to in June of 2019. Prior to joining GameStop, Jim served as CFO and interim CEO of Wok Holdings, Inc., the parent company of P.F. Chang’s, Pei Wei and True Food Kitchen restaurants, where he successfully designed and led the company’s overall strategic plan and omnichannel digital transformation and the successful sale of each of these brands. Previously, Jim served as EVP and CFO at RLH Corporation and President and CEO of Coldwater Creek, Inc. Earlier in his career he held senior finance roles at Harry & David Holdings, Inc. and The Gap. Jim received his MBA from the University of Maryland and a B.S. in Economics from the U.S. Naval Academy. Following graduation, Jim served as a Naval Flight Officer leading squadron and flight operations in the U.S. Navy from 1989 to 1998.
Dan ReedGeneral Counsel and Corporate Secretary Dan Reed serves as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for GameStop. In this role, Dan oversees all company domestic and international legal matters and works closely with the executive leadership team and the Board of Directors to ensure legal compliance and success in meeting business objectives.Prior to joining GameStop in 2006, Dan worked in private practice as a business lawyer. Dan holds a J.D. degree from the University of Texas and a bachelor’s degree from Texas A&M University.
Board of Directors
Kathy VrabeckBoard Chair Kathy P. Vrabeck is Board Chair and a member of the Compensation Committee. She has served as a Director since June 2012. She is currently a senior client partner in the consumer markets division of Korn Ferry. Previously, she was a Partner at Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. (“Heidrick & Struggles”) in their Media, Entertainment and Digital practice. Prior to joining Heidrick & Struggles in July 2011, Vrabeck was with Legendary Pictures from March 2009 to March 2011 where she served as president, Legendary Digital and was responsible for the creation, management and delivery of digital entertainment, with a focus on video games, across current and next-generation platforms. From May 2007 to November 2008, Vrabeck was with Electronic Arts, Inc. (“EA”) where she served as president, EA Casual Entertainment and led EA’s efforts in the fastest growing segments of the video game market: mobile, online, social networking and global media sales. Prior to joining EA, Vrabeck was with Activision, Inc. (“Activision”) from August 1999 to April 2006 where she served as president, Activision Publishing, overseeing Activision’s product development and global brand management and publishing operations. Earlier in her career, Vrabeck held various marketing, sales and finance positions with ConAgra, The Pillsbury Company, Quaker Oats and Eli Lilly and Company. Vrabeck currently serves on the DePauw University Board of Trustees.
George ShermanChief Executive Officer and Directo rGeorge E. Sherman is the chief executive officer of GameStop. He was appointed to this role in April 2019.George is a member of GameStop’s Board of Directors, a seat he has held since April 2019.George brings to GameStop more than 25 years of senior management experience serving in a variety of retail leadership roles for several major retail brands like Advance Auto Parts, Best Buy, Target and Home Depot.Prior to joining GameStop, George served as CEO of Victra, the largest exclusive authorized retailer for Verizon Wireless products and services. Before this, he served as president and interim CEO for Advance Auto Parts where he was responsible for more than 4,000 stores, merchandising, marketing, IT, supply chain and commercial sales.George also served as president of Best Buy Services, where he led consumer services, small- and medium-business capabilities, channel partnerships and Best Buy for business. Prior to Best Buy, he ran the operations and home services divisions of Home Depot and spent 14 years with the Target Corporation in various leadership roles.He received his master’s degree from Central Michigan University and served as an officer in the United States Air Force for nearly seven years. George is an active community volunteer with veteran’s causes and currently serves on the board of directors of Building Homes for Heroes, which builds mortgage free homes catered to the unique needs of disabled veterans.
Carrie TeffnerDirector Carrie Teffner is a director and was appointed to the board in 2018. Carrie is chair of the Audit Committee and brings 30 years of financial leadership and experience in the consumer products and retail industries. Carrie has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) since 2015. Before assuming her executive positions at Crocs, she served on the Crocs board of directors, which she joined in June 2015. Prior to joining Crocs, she served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at PetSmart and, before that, at Weber-Stephen Products. Prior to those roles, she served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Timberland and spent 21 years in various leadership positions at Sara Lee Corporation. Carrie holds Master of Business Administration and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Vermont.
Raul FernandezDirector Raul is a director and was appointed to GameStop’s board in April 2019. He serves as a member of the company’s Audit Committee. Raul serves as Vice Chairman and Owner of Monumental Sports & Entertainment, a private partnership that co-owns the NBA’s Washington Wizards, the NHL’s 2018 Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals, the WNBA’s Washington Mystics, Team Liquid eSports and Wizards District Gaming NBA 2K, as well as co-owns and operates Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. He also serves as Special Advisor and Limited Partner to General Atlantic Partners, a growth equity firm with more than $31 billion under management. He previously served in several leadership roles at various technology companies, including as Chairman and CEO for Object Video, a leading developer of intelligent video surveillance software. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Maryland and is an active philanthropist, focusing his energy primarily on education reform in the D.C. region.
Lizabeth DunnDirector Lizabeth is a director and was appointed to GameStop’s board in April 2019. She serves as a member of the company’s Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee and the Compensation Committee. Lizabeth is the Founder and CEO of Pro4ma Inc, an information technology services consulting firm that provides cloud-based data forecasting and predictive analytics tools to retailers. She also is the Founder and CEO of Talmage Advisers, a retail and branded consumer products consulting firm that provides a full range of services across brand strategy, pricing analysis, financial benchmarking and transactional due diligence. Prior to founding these firms, Lizabeth served in various consulting and financial analyst roles for leading financial firms and retail organizations, including Macquarie Group, FBR, Thomas Weisel, Prudential Equity Group, Bear Stearns, Gap Inc. and Liz Claiborne. She holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from Spelman College.
William SimonDirector Bill Simon has more than 30 years of operational and strategic advisory experience in the retail, consumer and food and beverage industries. Since 2014, he has served as a Senior Advisor at KKR & Co. Mr. Simon previously served in multiple leadership roles at Walmart Inc. from 2006 to 2015, including as President and CEO of Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014; EVP and COO of Walmart U.S. from 2007 to 2010; and as EVP, Professional Services and New Business Development from 2006 to 2007. Earlier in his career, Mr. Simon served as VP of Marketing, Beverages at Cadbury Schweppes plc and held leadership roles of increasing responsibility at PepsiCo, Inc., after beginning his career at RJR Nabisco. Bill holds an MBA and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Connecticut. Mr. Simon was appointed to the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Audit Committee and the chair of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
James SymancykDirector Mr. Symancyk brings more than 25 years of executive leadership and operational experience in the retail and consumer products industries. He has served as President and CEO of PetSmart, Inc. since 2018. Mr. Symancyk previously served as President and CEO of Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc., a retail and ecommerce sporting goods chain, from 2015 to 2018. Prior to that, he held leadership roles of increasingly responsibility at Meijer, Inc., a regional supercenter chain store, including as President; COO; and EVP, Merchandising & Marketing. He began his career at Sam’s Club, where he served as Divisional Merchandise Manager, among other roles. Mr. Symancyk holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Arkansas. Mr. Symancyk was appointed to the board in 2020 and serves as the chair of the Compensation Committee.
Reginald Fils-AiméDirector Reggie brings more than 35 years of experience transforming companies, revitalizing brands and reshaping industries. From 2006 to 2019, he served as President and COO of Nintendo of America, Inc. During his tenure, Mr. Fils-Aimé focused on the development and launch of industry re-defining products, including the Nintendo DS, Wii, Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo Switch, quadrupling the company’s revenue from 2005 to 2010, and oversaw the successful implementation of the company’s digital strategy. He previously served as Nintendo of America’s EVP of Sales and Marketing from 2003 to 2006. Prior to joining Nintendo, Mr. Fils-Aimé served as SVP of Marketing for VH1 from 2001 to 2003, where he led a strategic shift to appeal to younger consumers that resulted in an increase in ratings of more than 30 percent. Earlier in his career, he held multiple marketing roles at a variety of consumer and manufacturing companies, including the Derby Cycle Corporation, Guinness Import Company, Panda Management Company, Inc., Pizza Hut, Inc. and the Procter & Gamble Company. Mr. Fils-Aimé holds a Bachelor’s degree in Applied Economics from Cornell University. Mr. Fils-Aimé was appointed to the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
Kurt WolfDirector Mr. Wolf is the Managing Member and Chief Investment Officer of Hestia Capital Management LLC. Previously, Mr. Wolf worked in a variety of financial, investing and operating roles, at First Q Capital, LLC, and as a co-Founding Partner at Lemhi Ventures LLC. Earlier in his career, Mr. Wolf worked as a consultant both with Deloitte Consulting and The Boston Consulting Group. Mr. Wolf earned a Master of Business Administration degree from the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and Mathematics from Carleton College. Mr. Wolf joined the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.
Paul EvansDirector Mr. Evans is a Senior Managing Director at Dillon Kane Group. Additionally, Mr. Evans is a Board Director at Hill International, Inc. Prior to this, Mr. Evans served in a variety of senior executive roles at MYR Group Inc. Earlier in his career, Mr. Evans held a number of executive management positions at several energy-related businesses. Mr. Evans is a Certified Public Accountant and a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. Mr. Evans received a B.B.A in Accounting from Stephen F. Austin State University and a Masters of International Management from Thunderbird School of Global Management. Mr. Evans joined the board in 2020 and serves as a member of the Audit Committee.
I think I can trust y'all to be above the circlejerk on a certain other sub so would you please blow your load all over this DD so I can stop huffing copium? Reasons why I believe GME is a good long term investment:
The gaming industry is a high growth market. Currently valued at $156B and expected to reach $200B by the end of 2021. This means that in order for GameStop to lose revenue they would also need to lose roughly 66% market share, otherwise the high growth of the gaming market alone will keep them afloat. The thesis that GameStop is the next Blockbuster is predicated on the current trend of market share loss continuing until the company goes bankrupt. There is no doubt in my mind that GameStop needs to pivot into e-commerce in order to gain back lost market share and continue benefiting from their position as a retailer in a high growth market. Ryan Cohen is the former CEO of Chewy, an e-commerce retailer specializing in pet products which directly competes with Amazon. Chewy has grown from a 400K market cap to over 40B. R.C. recently purchased 9.8% of Gamestop’s outstanding stock through his investment firm RC Ventures LLC. This is his open letter to the GME board written on Nov. 6th. On Jan. 11th it was confirmed that RC would be joining the GME board alongside two partners from Chewy, CFO Jim Grube and CMO Alan Attal. Given the timing of this move it is logical to conclude that GME may be taking RC’s recommendations to heart. On Feb. 2nd three additional experts in the e-commerce market were appointed to executive positions within GME: former AWS engineering lead Matt Francis as CTO, Amazon veteran Josh Kreuger as VP of Fulfillment, and former Chewy VP of Customer Service Kelly Durkin as SVP of Customer Care. Gamestop is poised for a promising earnings report TBA this March due to console release cycles. GME stock has soared in recent weeks due to wild speculation driven by online forum WSB. Prior to recent events GME stock was shorted over 140% of outstanding float, WSB users saw an opportunity to squeeze the shorts due to the above good news regarding GME long positions. This has provided GME with much needed breathing room to make stock offerings and pay back accrued real estate debt. Often touted by those bearish on GME is the news that they would be closing over 450 stores in 2020. However this falls in line with the plan RC outlined in his open letter, and I believe this could actually lead to bullish sentiment. If the board of GME is listening to RC then that is good news.
Why GME may be a decent speculative play:
There is good reason to believe that the prevailing market thesis among wall street investment firms is bearish on GME. Source: every interview of wall street insiders conducted on major media outlets, and the fact that they were shorting GME 140% of the outstanding float. SI% dropped considerably at the end of January as shorts were gradually squeezed out of their positions due to the stock going viral on social media. This suggests that there are at least some who consider shorting GME to be too risky. SI% is still estimated to be over 100% of the outstanding float, and many investors doubled down on short positions at the peak of the GME hype when the stock soared to $500 a share. If the market thesis on GME reverses, the short positions will eventually be covered. A correct valuation of share price based on market fundamentals still places it in the $20-30 range in optimistic estimates. This is the range in which I believe that short positions should consider covering IF the prevailing market thesis changes, creating upward momentum.
Why GME has potential as an insanely lucrative gamble at the same IQ level as Burry's Big Short:
This is where we enter into the area of conspiracy theories. This part of the thesis assumes that not only have HFs over shorted the stock beyond the outstanding float, but that the real SI% is much much higher than reported and is being hidden through illegal stock counterfeiting. The SEC has acknowledged these dangerous activities in other cases. This website has a decent explanation of how HFs take advantage of companies going bankrupt to turn on the money printers. IF the usual suspects in this counterfeiting ring were planning to take advantage of GameStop’s impending bankruptcy then there could be as many as 30 fake shares for every one FTD. This is speculation on speculation, and assumes that some very illegal activity has been going on in regards to GME shares. I personally did not make my decision to invest in GME shares based upon this, but it could be important to the overall market thesis regarding GME. Ok with that disclaimer out of the way, what metrics could we use to determine if this is being done to GME? The site linked above outlines a few key data points which we can use to investigate this practice. Fails to Deliver data for GME has been compiled here. GME was one of the most shorted stocks in 2020. All major media outlets have released opinions that “GameStop is the next Blockbuster”. Citron was releasing pieces attacking GME. While this is circumstantial evidence at best, it does fit the criteria of media attacks. The ongoing media coverage of the GME event is largely negative, describing WSB as a “pump and dump scam” at best. The WSB GME event was the perfect storm for counterfeiters, IF there were a large number of counterfeit shares being used in “Short Ladder Attacks” they would have been easily disguised in the high volume leading up to GME ATH. When RH restricted users from buying the stock they may have inadvertently revealed the underlying transactions of counterfeit shares being used to push the price down. A deep analysis of the transactions on the day immediately following the RH change may be quite revealing. IF the above alleged is true then the counterfeiters would have tried their hardest to push the price down on those days. They also have potentially infinite leverage to do so, which is why the concept of a “Short Squeeze” has largely gone extinct. The Shorts can produce an infinite supply of shares to counter buy interest. The only way they can lose is if GameStop makes a turnaround and long investors stay in. They need to do everything they can to get them to sell. If you have followed through this with me this far then I invite you to come to your own conclusions regarding this issue based upon logical reasoning. Some questions I’d like to ask you: Was GameStop a good target for share counterfeiting? Does the FTD data suggest that there was at least some counterfeiting being done? Is the market’s reaction to the GME event in line with normal expectations? Are there any other reasonable explanations for the high FTD numbers over the past year?
This is what I think could be happening right now, assuming the above is correct:
GameStop was supposed to go bankrupt. Counterfeiters that have been consistently preying upon companies in similar situations saw an opportunity to turn on the money printers, which have been going BRRRRRR for all of 2020 at least. When GME went viral they took advantage of the high volume to attack the share price, preventing a short squeeze. The goal is to drive the price down all the way to 0. If it is as bad as I think it is, there is 0 chance of the counterfeit shares used to short the stock ever being covered. The shares simply don’t exist, but there are a number of ways they can just keep kicking the can forward and hiding them from the SEC (which is unlikely to do anything meaningful about it even if they did know). However there may be limits to how long they can keep this up. The ringleaders are either still hoping that everyone jumps off the bandwagon after crashing the stock, or they will take their profits and escape. This is make it or break it for them, and they don’t intend to be around when it breaks. What happens next is anyone’s guess. I predict something similar to the 2008 financial crisis as the criminals behind this scam leave the DTCC and the FED on the hook after they loot the ship. I bet the biggest players have already fucked off into the sunset. In Conclusion: GME is a promising company in a high growth industry, however there are indications that they were preyed upon by criminal share counterfeiters, which means that it is a matter of GME vs. criminal billionaires and I’m starting to doubt if my investment was worth the risk even considering a strong belief in Ryan Cohen’s ability to turn things around. Hindsight is 2020, welcome to 2021. If I was in DFV’s shoes right now I’d be in a fast car heading somewhere far away.
In my last post I want over the bit of psychology that we can expect to have used against us in the coming weeks. Now in this one I want to go into some of the fundamentals of the company. As I've not seen this posted, and I can't post on WSB since I got banned for 60 days when the mods changed, I will post it here, feel free to distribute in other groups. GameStop has put in some new meat, namely:Ryan CohenAlan AttalJim Grube All three have been with Chewy for quite a bit, taking the public stock from 29 usd to 110 in less then a year.... in pet food, this is nothing short of amazing. Ryan Cohen took a small idea and made it a big thing, and he has an eye for business. he invested in 6 million shares at $8+-And as far as I can read he is interested in GameStop for the long run, meaning he thinks the customer experience is the main thing and that's it's the most important thing Alan Attal, COO/CMo at chewy. Some basic info from his Linkdin profile really sums up everything I was able to find about this man. Strategic and action-oriented entrepreneur with experience building Chewy from the ground up into the fastest growing multibillion dollar e-commerce company. The company sold for $3.3b in 2017, the largest e-commerce acquisition to date. Successfully built and led large scale teams across the entire organization, focusing on marketing, e-commerce, customer service, operations, and fulfillment. - Strategy & Execution- Brand Marketing- Acquisition and Digital Marketing- UX/UI- Customer Service- Operations & Fulfillment- Product Development- Private Label This basically comes back to the same as before, branding, digital marketing and customer experience is very important for this person, as he most likely realizes that this is the main part on how to build customer loyalty. Jim Grube, CFOA history as a Director of finance at amazon 2007/2009, senior VP at the Hilton 2009-2015, CFO at Chewy from 2015-2018, Vacasa CFO for North America’s largest vacation property management company 2018-2020This seems to be the guy you call in when shit go's sideways to reorganize and get everything back on the up and up. And he is still heavily invested in the travel Trifecta of Hotels, Planes, Rental Cars and e-commerce. Given these three people it leads me to believe that the GameStop as we once knew it is dead, there will be an entirely new GameStop made in the next year or 2. all three of these guys are heavily involved in the digital revolution of companies and turning them around from a losing company to healthy profitable companies. Now some people a lot of people have brushed over but is important to mention none the less. These people got appointed around april 2020, so they have been working on planning (as the stores where closed around the world before anything could be implemented) Reggie Fils-Aime, ex nintendo William Simon, who previously served as president and CEO of Walmart James Symancyk, who has served as president and CEO of PetSmart some info on them as well as this is important to know: Reginald “Reggie” Fils-Aimé,is an accomplished media and technology executive who brings more than 35 years of experience transforming companies, revitalizing brands and reshaping industries. From 2006 to 2019, he served as President and COO of Nintendo of America, Inc. During his tenure, Mr. Fils-Aimé focused on the development and launch of industry re-defining products, including the Nintendo DS, Wii, Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo Switch, quadrupling the company’s revenue from 2005 to 2010, and oversaw the successful implementation of the company’s digital strategy. He previously served as Nintendo of America’s EVP of Sales and Marketing from 2003 to 2006. Prior to joining Nintendo, Mr. Fils-Aimé served as SVP of Marketing for VH1 from 2001 to 2003, where he led a strategic shift to appeal to younger consumers that resulted in an increase in ratings of more than 30 percent. Earlier in his career, he held multiple marketing roles at a variety of consumer and manufacturing companies, including the Derby Cycle Corporation, Guinness Import Company, Panda Management Company, Inc., Pizza Hut, Inc. and the Procter & Gamble Company. Mr. Fils-Aimé holds a Bachelor’s degree in Applied Economics from Cornell University. Mr. Fils-Aimé has been appointed as a member of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, effective April 20, 2020. William Simon,is a seasoned executive with more than 30 years of operational and strategic advisory experience in the retail, consumer and food and beverage industries. Since 2014, he has served as a Senior Advisor at KKR & Co. Mr. Simon previously served in multiple leadership roles at Walmart Inc. from 2006 to 2015, including as President and CEO of Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014; EVP and COO of Walmart U.S. from 2007 to 2010; and as EVP, Professional Services and New Business Development from 2006 to 2007. Earlier in his career, Mr. Simon served as VP of Marketing, Beverages at Cadbury Schweppes plc and held leadership roles of increasing responsibility at PepsiCo, Inc., after beginning his career at RJR Nabisco. His current board memberships include Anixter International Inc.; Chico’s FAS; and Darden Restaurants, Inc. Mr. Simon holds an MBA and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Connecticut. Mr. Simon has been appointed as a member of the Audit Committee. James “J.K.” Symancyk,brings more than 25 years of executive leadership and operational experience in the retail and consumer products industries. He has served as President and CEO of PetSmart, Inc. since 2018. Mr. Symancyk previously served as President and CEO of Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc., a retail and ecommerce sporting goods chain, from 2015 to 2018. Prior to that, he held leadership roles of increasingly responsibility at Meijer, Inc., a regional supercenter chain store, including as President; COO; and EVP, Merchandising & Marketing. He began his career at Sam’s Club, where he served as Divisional Merchandise Manager, among other roles. His current board memberships include PetSmart and Chewy, Inc., and previously Academy Sports & Outdoors. Mr. Symancyk holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Arkansas. Mr. Symancyk has been appointed a member of the Compensation Committee**.** Now knowing all that, do you think this company is not worth the money? The idea that it gives me is that this is an apple/amazon like situation. They're not great now, but with the involvement and putting the right people at the right spots at the right time this company can become big as hell. As how not only well trained these people are, a lot of people forget the most important aspect.WHO THEY KNOWThese people are extremely well connected, Amazon, Walmart, PetSmart, Microsoft, Nintendo etc etc etc.This is a point of seeing the worth of a company And if people like this can see the worth of their new plans (which of course are not public or else the competition could just copy their DD), I think we have not yet seen the end of this. Regardless of the squeeze, the shorts and everything in between, I think we might be looking at a fortune 500 company getting it's boots tied before joining the race. Edit: as Th3-Plug just pointed out I forgot about Matt Francis Matt Francis, CTO He will join GameStop on Feb 15th, from his Linkdin: Seasoned, customer focused product and technology leader with demonstrated experience delivering complex initiatives. Expert at building high-performing teams and delivering transformational results. Skilled in large footprint cloud based infrastructure, highly-scalable systems, Big Data systems and agile methodologies. Hands on experience building systems in AWS and Google Cloud using cutting edge architectures. Core Skills: • Sr. leadership, strategic goal setting, and metrics driven management. • Team building, mentoring, skill development and individual performance management. • Product roadmap development, OKR definition and delivery. • Cloud native software architecture, micro-service architecture. • Distributed systems design on cloud infrastructure (AWS, GCE). • Big Data and Data Analytics systems. • CI/CD, SCM, DevOps & DevTools, and alerting and monitoring platform This guy seems to be all about the digital aspect, even if you look into his background he has years of experience when it comes to cloud services and data analysis. This in itself seems to point at GME trying to become more then just plain old brick and mortar, but maybe something to integrate into steam/online play like action. as for his work experience seems to point at digitizing non digital companies, and he even left Amazon as Engineering leader (AWS) to join GameStop. Why would someone leave an amazingly secure job (not to mention lucrative) if there wasn't a bigger plan at play This isn't financial advice just some stuff I found and thought should be shared. If you have any other aspects of the company you want me to take a closer look at feel free to post
Why I'm in on $BET- the coin of online decentralized casino EarnBet that could be the future of IGaming
As we've seen, the shares of Gamestop have surged as millennials deemed it to be under-valued, controlled by the fat cats of wall streets, etc. Since we're living in a pandemic, everything online and gaming-related has surged rapidly. This is why I think EarnBet- an online decentralized casino- could potentially be the next target of 'pumps.' The IGaming industry is expected to grow by 70% this year and we're seeing people switching to alternative forms of entertainment. People have shown an increased interest in Bitcoin, explaining their surge. EarnBet offers users the facility of non-custodial accounts, a low and transparent house edge (bets are conducted on the WAX blockchain), pays 100% of dividends to token holders ($10M so far in a time frame of 2 years), and access to a low house edge upon staking a certain amount of $BET. All of this while being worth a mere $2.5 Million. To put things into perspective, EarnBet is partnered up with ChainLINK, has an imminent release that could potentially be revolutionary, and is currently offering a $22,000 giveaway which has witnessed increased volumes in the leaderboard. All of this equates to increased wagers.The casino conducts regular buybacks and conducted a $103K token buyback on UniSwap and is planning to burn 50% while distributing the rest to token holders.50% of the house edge goes to costs while the latter is distributed as dividends to token holders. The team themselves have staked their share of $BET on the EarnBet platform for a time frame of 5 years showing that they are confident of the casino's future. With the stock frenzy, EarnBet could be the next 'pump-target' given the fact that it 'revolutionizing' crypto-gambling. Refer to more here regarding the tokeneconomics
$CLIS - Winners Subsidiary VegasWINNERS Names Howard Lefkowitz, Former CEO of VEGAS.COM and Senior Executive at Earthlink & Home Shopping Network as President
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/WNRS/news/Winners-Subsidiary-VegasWINNERS-Names-Howard-Lefkowitz-Former-CEO-of-VEGASCOM-and-Senior-Executive-at-Earthlink--Home-Sh?id=287012 LAS VEGAS, NV / ACCESSWIRE / January 21, 2021 / Winners, Inc. (OTC PINK:WNRS) subsidiary VegasWINNERS Inc., which provides sports betting enthusiasts with high quality analysis, research, data, guidance and professional advice, announces the hire of Howard Lefkowitz, former CEO of VEGAS.com and senior executive of Earthlink and Home Shopping Network as its President. Lefkowitz brings to VegasWINNERS considerable marketing and technical experience in Internet business, television, and film. He served as vice president of business development and marketing for Earthlink. He worked with Dick Clark Productions to bring the first interactive primetime show to network TV. He also worked with Ted Turner's WTBS to create that station's first original show. A well-respected entertainment industry visionary, Lefkowitz has also consulted for NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox, as well as Warner Bros and MCA/Universal. Lefkowitz was also a senior executive at multichannel retailer HSN, and later served as president of one of the multibillion-dollar company's subsidiaries. During his nine-year tenure as president and CEO, VEGAS.com became the most visited and successful site for city hospitality and information on the web. Under his leadership VEGAS.com became a highly profitable, globally renowned brand with sales of nearly $400 MM annually. VEGAS.com grew to millions of unique visitors per month and operated back-of-house systems, including box offices, for many of the largest hotels in Las Vegas. Mr. Lefkowitz will lead monetization, marketing, technology and day to day operations of VegasWINNERS. Wayne Allyn Root, CEO of VegasWINNERS stated, "Howard has been my friend and neighbor for nearly twenty years. His expertise across multiple industries and disciplines, combined with his rich history of innovation and leadership will be of tremendous value to VegasWINNERS! We are delighted to have him on our winning team." Last year, Grand View Research reported that in 2019 the global online gambling market size was valued at USD 53.7 billion and that they expected it to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027. Later they projected revenues in 2027 to reach $127.3 billion by 2027. Active companies in the market include DraftKings Inc., Playgon Games Inc., Scientific Games Corporation, Landcadia Holdings II, Inc. and Penn National Gaming, Inc.
I think that this one has been under-reported somewhat but since I work in the online gaming industry, it showed up on my radar. This SPAC has reached a deal to bring back Paysafe to the market, at a valuation of 9 billions. What is Paysafe? Paysafe Group has been consolidating the market for e-wallets and alternative payment methods for years and went back into private hands 3 years ago. They regroup all the main e-wallets used for online gambling and Forex: Skrill and Neteller and also prepaid cards (to be bought in 7/11 and the like) under the Paysafe brand. Why e-wallets matter in the online gambling market? E-wallets and prepaid cards represent about 25% of the volume of payments in online gambling in UK, Europe, Canada and Skrill/NetellePaysafe are by far the biggest names in this field. https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/fisglobal/WorldPay/Docs/Miscellaneous/Gaming%20Payments%20Report%202019 Neteller and Moneybookers (as Skrill was known then) were dominating the US alternative payment methods gambling market in the US before they got pushed out in 2007. They still have high name recognition amongst the gambling crowd and web searches in the US for these brands remain high, even if they can’t process much transactions there for gambling since many states don’t have online gambling legislations yet, or very limiting ones. E-Wallets are often the preferred payment method for gamblers since it allows to move money from one operator site to the other quickly and cheaply. They can also use it as a bankroll segregated from their main bank account/CC and on top of that, Paysafe offers loyalty benefits to users based on their transaction volumes. As such, their user retention is very good. The prepaid card business is also a major factor for this stock attractiveness. Prepaid cards to be bought in gas stations or the like are often preferred by gamblers who want to strictly control their gambling or those who don’t have access to a CC (maybe because they gambled too much) or those that prefer cash transactions out of privacy concerns… Why not invest in the gambling operators instead? Operators such as Draftkings or legacy casino groups are going to make money but the regulatory environment is harsh and gambling taxes are crazy in some states and might keep going higher. Moreover, the regulations being so fragmented, many smaller operators push in certain states and not others and the competitive environment is broad. Remember that gambling is a fungible good. There is no difference in the casino games that the operators can offer (same game studios, same rules) and aside from bonuses and the margins on sports bets, the only differentiation is in branding, which is a thin moat on a product that often leaves the users disgruntled (losers). Payments on the other hand are not taxed for their relationship to gambling and there are far fewer players. How does Paysafe make money? The margins on their products are pretty high and Paysafe charges both sides of the transaction in the case of the e-wallets and the merchant side in the case of the prepaid cards. For the use of Skrill and Neteller wallets, Paysafe charges on average 4.5% on the merchant side for deposits and a whooping 9.9% on deposits with prepaid cards… Larger merchants certainly can negotiate these rates down but this is still a healthy fee, much higher than credit card processors. In markets where Paysafe has established domination they charge a small deposit fee to the user and a withdrawal fee. For now, they charge no fees to the US users in a bid to grow market share surely but that will probably end some day. Growth opportunity: For now, the US online gambling market is still very limited. Most states have not legalized, the majority of those who have legalized only did so for sports betting and then a handful have legalized online casino gaming (where the real money is made). The opening up of the market is bound to grow as states need money and more of the world moves online. https://www.playusa.com/us/ It is estimated that the online gaming market could reach 25 billions a year in the US in a few years time and 150 billions worldwide. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market#:~:text=The%20North%20America%20online%20gambling,CAGR%20during%20the%20forecast%20period. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-online-gambling-market These revenues do not equal to deposited amounts, they equal net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals). The hold % of online casinos can be anywhere between 50% and 80% depending on how degenerate the market is in a given country but we can conservatively assume 60%. This means that deposits volume in the US alone would reach about 40 billions, Europe about 50 Billions and worldwide 250 billions. That should give Paysafe around 8-10 billions in transaction volume per year in the US alone , another 10-12 billions in Europe and conservatively, another 20 billions worldwide. Valuation estimates: Rough estimates are therefore revenues of about 1.5 billions per year for Paysafe group in a few years for gambling alone. Paysafe claims 1.5 billions in revenues total projected for 2021, with only a third from gambling. Even assuming no growth from the other verticals, this means that the total revenues of Paysafe should grow by 66% with gambling alone in the next 5 years or so. Pysafe is investing a lot into expansion in other areas than gambling, notably video-gaming and remittance so assuming they don’t fuck it up completely, we are likely to see a 3 billions dollar in revenues in the next 5 years. Using Paypal’s marketcap vs revenues, that would mean 50 billions in marketcap for Paysafe… Of course, Paypal is ingrained deeply in the whole of ecommerce and Paysafe is more specialized in gambling which might be shakier and herefore command a lower valuation. The deal details are not fully known but it looks like a current valuation of 9 billions for Paysafe Group upon listing. Based on my estimates, the marketcap could reach 50 billions in a few years time, one US market for gambling fully opens. $BFT is trading at a 25% premium right now, therefore the estimate is 4x on investment over a few years. Obviously you retards are not the most patient bunch but I believe the stock will jump when it morphs and so keep an eye out for the options.
I wanted to share with the group some due diligence and speculation I have done around Gamehost (TSX: GH). I want to start by saying that this is not a situation where you urgently need to buy this right now and ride up a wave, there will be no rocket ships on this post and I strongly encourage you to perform your own due diligence and see if you want to buy this stock. This is an extremely low volume stock and if you rush to buy it, the price will go up far past the supply of sellers. I do not intend to pump this but only to get critique. Gamehost is an owner and operator of 3 casinos located in Alberta, 2 hotels in Grande Prairie and a retail store rented to a liquor store near one of the casinos. The 3 casinos are: Boomtown Casino in Fort McMurray, The Great Northern Casino in Grande Prairie and the Deerfoot Inn and Casino in Calgary which they own 91% of currently. As you probably guessed by these locations, the casinos are cyclical and make a lot of money when oil prices are up and go through downturns when prices are low and projects stop. All 3 casinos are not destination type casinos like you would find in Las Vegas where people come from all around to visit, but are very reliant on their local communities. The Boomtown Casino is the only casino in Fort McMurray and the Great Northern Casino is the only proper casino in Grande Prairie with a much smaller limited one in town. The Deerfoot Inn and Casino is 1 of 7 (yes, 7!) casinos in the Calgary area. It primarily focuses on the Southeastern portion of the city and the surrounding suburbs and still serves a market of about 200,000 people in just that area. All 3 casinos are also very focused on live events and have become gathering points for live events and nights out for their communities. Although all 3 casinos have been affected by oil downturns all 3 communities they serve have much higher median income than the country as a whole. The casinos have remained profitable throughout the entirety of the oil downturn and despite a dividend cut in 2016 they have still paid a consistently strong dividend until the COVID-19 pandemic (more on this later). Grande Prairie’s economy is more focused on natural gas extraction which has been consistently profitable. Calgary as a major city does have a diversified economy as well which leaves just Fort McMurray to be the lone straggler in dealing with oil prices. No new casinos have been built in Alberta since 2006, which has left people still coming to the doors of the casinos regardless of the economy. All three cities have seen consistent population growth greater than 10% from 2016 according to Statistics Canada’s estimates which is far greater than the national average. People are still coming to these cities and are still making a fairly high wage compared to the average Canadian. The second thing that has likely come to your mind is why casinos when they have been shut down during the pandemic? As the vaccine is currently being implemented the orders will not last forever. When the casinos have been opened even with reduced services, they have remained profitable and the management has responded by using the pandemic as an opportunity. They have been consistently buying back thousands of shares every day and cancelling them. If you look at their SEDAR profile you can see that they have not missed a single day to cancel at least 2,000 shares per day. Since the company had 24.5 million shares issued, they have bought back about 1-2% of the float so far which has made the stock even harder to buy on the open markets due to the lack of volume. They have also been approved to expand the operations of the Deerfoot Inn and Casino which should be completed by the summer. The insiders have followed by accumulating many shares in their personal accounts over this period of weakness. In the third quarter of 2020 the company posted EPS of 12 cents per share down from 16 cents a year ago. Revenue was down to $4.9 million from $6.7 million. This is with severe restrictions and limitations on the amount of people that can come in the casino and what they can do. All live events were cancelled, table games were restricted and yet the company was still making enough money to buy back significant shares and improve their existing assets. The management has essentially channelled the dividend into making the number of shares decrease in a time of strong price weakness. There is interest in this space since the largest casino operator in the country Great Canadian Gaming was acquired recently for almost double what they were trading for in the spring. Private equity firms have been looking into casinos as a post-recovery play. Unlike companies in airlines or movie theatres, these do not have significant issues staying profitable during intense downturns, they only become less profitable with a sudden surge afterwards. I am speculatively buying this stock on the idea that as COVID-19 restrictions are gradually lifted there will be an awkward window where people will be back almost to normal within Canada and will have a strong urge to go out and do activities that they have been restricted from doing for months. At the same time they will be unable to travel internationally due to different countries having different vaccination schedules, planes still operating at reduced capacity with many airlines being in trouble and governments being reluctant to remove limitations abroad. This will significantly bring business to casinos and other live event focused businesses within Canada. I anticipate that in the 12 months past restrictions being lifted that the business will see a significant bump in EPS. They will reinstate the dividend and the share price will grow significantly. My personal price target is $12 per share but I could see it being anywhere from $10-$15 per share. This is without oil prices budging at all. In the long-term the price will be cyclical based on oil prices unless they start diversifying geographically. It is extremely difficult to get a licence to open a casino, which leaves the company with the only option of acquiring other casinos. This is a possibility down the road but something I will look more into once I see a significant bump in EPS due to increased demand. I do believe that in the current market with the price having barely recovered from the March lows, that the stock is a very good contrarian play in the 12-24 month range. Holding after that could potentially be risky depending on your own views on how the oil industry will play out and if the management has what it takes to diversify. Online gambling is an even longer term threat but since these casinos are focused on live events and have become a staple of the communities that they are in, this is not likely to be a threat for some significant time. Please let me know what you think, feel free to criticize. If you guys like my analysis I could do more on other small or mid cap companies. There have been a few I have kicked myself over missing.
How to Start Investing in The Stock Market? Start Investing NOW! Challenge Portfolio? [Ep.11][02-07]
Welcome everyone to another post of the 0 to Hero Portfolio Challenge, if this your first time reading my post be sure to hit the follow button and subscribe to myYouTubechannel to stay up to date with how the challenge is going and also get the latest news, updates & predictions as I post almost every day! So, last week, the challenge portfolio value was $4369. This week the portfolio grew by more than 7% as it currently stands at almost $4700. We had a terrific week posting gains in all 5 trading days with 2 of the 3 best days since starting the portfolio and gaining more than 0.7% in all 5 days. We finished the month of January with a gain of almost 3.6% or $150 while right now after a great start to February, we are up more than the last 2 months in 2020 as the portfolio has gained more than 11% or nearly $500. I didn’t make a single change in the portfolio this week, as I didn’t add any new positions with the opened positions from last week doing very well, while also not closing any additional trades as I keep the portfolio in a risk-on position. Here [ 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 ] is my current portfolio composition in order of my biggest gainers by percentage, as the best performing companies Tilray, PayPal & Penn Gaming are up huge while Pinterest rose after great earnings and Disney continues to be one of the best performers as they are one of my favorite re-opening stocks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin also spiked up recently back to the 40k mark, while my new addition Twilio is up already almost 15% with Google also spiking on better-than-expected results. So, most of the tech names have been very profitable just like Microsoft, Salesforce, Amazon and the newly added Zscaler, while some more value plays like Morgan Stanley and my new ETF positions from the Asian markets have moved in positive territory. But I do also have some losing positions with Qualcomm losing ground on soft expectations for 2021, while my biggest losers are some of the more volatile stocks like Lemonade, Palantir, BioNano Genomics alongside the heavily hit Coca-Cola. So, I had so many stocks gaining more than 5% in the past week as I have decided to only show the ones that gained more than 15% this week, with the biggest gainer this week being Tilray, rising by more than 40% while gambling names like DraftKings, Wynn Resorts & PENN National Gaming also gained big this week. We also saw materials doing very well this week, with Freeport gaining almost 18% while many hot stocks like Bilibili, UBER & PayPal rose big alongside E-commerce and new Social Media platforms like ETSY and Pinterest also. The only stock that lost more than 5% was Qualcomm, as they suffered despite good earnings results, as the outlook for 2021 was pretty soft, but I still like the company and I am not planning on selling right now. I have currently made 175 trades in this portfolio with almost 70% of them being profitable, with an average profit of over 20% and an average loss of 7%. The biggest values right now in my portfolio are being hold by Apple, Disney & Google, as I only have 8 stocks over 2% of my portfolio right now, with Bitcoin also near this level. Let’s also take a quick look at my current diversification, as my top 3 sectors are Technology, Communications Services and Consumer Discretionary, with my biggest industry allocations being to Entertainment & Online Retail. Also, HERE is my current targeted portfolio, just a reminder you can find the link to this full spreadsheet and my price targets for different companies down in the description. So, my top 2 picks are Apple & Disney as I also have a lot of companies on my watchlist. And last but not least don’t forget that this week we will have the ex-dividend date for Visa while Apple, Deere & Morgan Stanley will pay out their quarterly dividend as we also have a lot of earnings reports coming up this week with big names like Disney, GM, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and many more others reporting. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! PS: Hello Guys❗ Please don't forget to follow me on YouTube❗ You can voteHEREfor the next stock analysis! 🔜Stay tuned for the upcoming posts in the next couple of days❗ 🎯My: Price Target Spreadsheet 💰My: 0 to Hero Challenge Portfolio ✔️ Both of the sheets are self-updating every minute, so the stats are very accurate ✔️ 100% Free Content [No Patreon / No Courses / No Nothing]❗️ Thank you very much for the support❗ I really appreciate it & Have a great day and see you next time🙏
How to Start Investing in The Stock Market? Start Investing NOW! Challenge Portfolio [Ep.9] [01-24]
Welcome everyone to another post of the 0 to Hero Portfolio Challenge, if this your first time reading my post be sure to hit the follow button and subscribe to myYouTubechannel to stay up to date with how the challenge is going and also get the latest news, updates & predictions as I post almost every day! So, last week, the challenge portfolio value was $4291. I haven’t added any money to this account and the portfolio is currently up $750 to $4429 since starting with ROI of over 21%. The portfolio gained about $142 or over 3.3%, with 3 days of over 1% gains which is terrific, while also only having 2 small daily losses that combined for just .1% as the portfolio is already up in January as much as it was to close out 2020 after starting in mid-November, with almost a 10% gain for this month. Now let’s move on to the latest moves in the portfolio. So, guys, I closed 10 trades with all of them being for profit taking reasons as some of the stocks like Roku which was up over 85%, Etsy up over 60% and MercadoLibre also up over 50% were already too big of a part of the portfolio compared to the targets I have set for them. So, after closing these trades, my gain on closed trades has gone up to $440 or 11% in under 3 months which is very good. I also reopened all of those 10 trades with 50$ each so I can get the distribution I want, while also using the profits to add to my positions in Alphabet, Microsoft & Walt Disney and also opened a new position in Micron which I really like as a catch-up play in the semiconductor industry, as they are finally getting their act together after the Huawei loss. Here [ 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 ] is my current portfolio composition in order of my biggest gainers by percentage as the best performing companies are Lemonade up over 160% with the recent buy Jumia also up already 52% while 3 of my EV plays NIO, GM & Ford are all up around 40%. Two of my biggest holdings, Apple & Disney are also up around 14% with 2 other staple names Target & JPM up around 19%. Also, BioNano Genomics is already up over 15% again after reducing my position last week, while both Netflix and Alibaba had good weeks and finally started moving up a little. The other big tech names, Google, Amazon & Microsoft are just above break even, while Tesla is up around 6% since buying it, but I am strongly considering selling my Tesla stock until we have a dip or correction in the stock. I think the likelihood of Tesla going up 50% is lower than it going down 50% right now and I don’t want to take that risk for the meanwhile, but I haven’t really made a decision yet. I also have losing trades, with Facebook recovering strong this week, while the stocks that I reduced my stake in MercadoLibre and Roku are down just over 1% since that moment with Etsy also down almost 3%, while the biggest losers are Bitcoin after the recent plunge, the old & heavy Coca-Cola and Intuitive Surgical despite very good earnings released this week. Here are some of stocks that have moved more than 5% in the last week: So, the only stock that dropped more than 5% in my entire 73 stocks portfolio, was Tilray, which confirmed my decision last week to take some profits, while my biggest holding Apple had a terrific week gaining more than 9% ahead of the earnings coming this week. The biggest gainers this week were by far Jumia 31%, Palantir up 27% ahead of the Demo Day which were also joined by BNGO and Ford both up around 17%. Netflix also rose over 13% after they crushed the subscriber expectations for the 4th quarter, while the other big tech names were also up, with Facebook and Google gaining more than 9% while Microsoft, Salesforce and Amazon rose by over 6% in this huge catch-up week for big tech. We also saw the Chinese companies rising, with Alibaba keeping the momentum on, rising by 6% and Bilibili also gaining 9%. EVs were also in flavor once again, as NIO & GM gained 10% after the latest Cruise & BrightDrop developments from GM. The semiconductors changed tides this week, as Intel disappointed again in the earnings report and pushed its rivals AMD and NVIDIA up over 5% for the week Other good moving stocks this week were PayPal rising 5%, Chipotle and MercadoLibre gaining 6% while Penn gaming rose by more than 10% after gambling went live in Michigan on Friday and set new records in Pennsylvania. Guys I just wanted to remind you that I just made my Disney full stock analysis including Technical, Fundamental and the DCF, which you can WATCH or READ in these links. This week I also maintained my average risk score at 5 and My max drawdowns at the previous levels as I have currently made 136 trades in this portfolio with 66% of them being profitable, with an average profit of almost 23% and an average loss of 5.8%. The biggest investments in my portfolio right now are Apple, Disney, Netflix, Boeing, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Bitcoin with over 80$ invested in each while the biggest values right now in my portfolio being hold by Apple, Disney & Netflix, as I only have 7 stocks over 2% of my portfolio right now. Let’s take a quick look at my diversification, as my top 3 sectors are Technology, Communications Services and Consumer Discretionary, with my biggest industry allocations being to Online Retail & Entertainment, followed by Semiconductors & Traditional Retailers. This is the risk allocation, as the biggest risk is Jumia due to its high beta & Boeing due to the big exposure to the re-opening of the economy, but I think I still have enough diversification with most of the company’s accounting for under 4% of my risk allocation. Here is my current targeted portfolio, just a reminder you can find the link HERE and my price targets HERE. So, my top 2 picks are Apple & Disney as I also have a lot of companies on my watchlist and my next buys list, as I actively manage this portfolio. And last but not least don’t forget that this week we will have the ex-dividend date for Morgan Stanley while JP Morgan and General Electric will pay out their quarterly dividend as we also have a ton of earnings reports coming up this week with big names like Microsoft, Tesla, Facebook, JNJ, Apple and many more others reporting. Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! PS: Hello Guys❗ Please don't forget to follow me on YouTube❗ 🔜Stay tuned for the upcoming posts in the next couple of days❗ 🎯My: Price Target Spreadsheet 💰My: 0 to Hero Challenge Portfolio ✔️ Both of the sheets are self-updating every minute, so the stats are very accurate ✔️ 100% Free Content [No Patreon / No Courses / No Nothing]❗️ 🙏Thank you very much for the support❗ I really appreciate it & Have a great day and see you next time🙏
Marketing to millennials has proven difficult for gambling companies. For those who do not know, the'millennial' period is used extensively to describe humans born between 1980 and 2000. The past generations have fallen into splendor and charm as casino companies grow, but the millennials have not been very accommodating. , And the hassle of marketing for this generation of buyers is unexpectedly turning into a hot button problem for the gaming industry. Despite the perceptions many older people have of millennials, there is absolute confidence that it could be an important market determining the fate of businesses that are expected to live for a long time to come. Millennials total 87 million people, more than 10 million more than baby boomers. In the next five years, most analysts expect millennials to be the driving force behind almost every quarter of all retail spending. With these facts in mind, you can see why basic players in online casino companies are concerned. Preferred millennials don't gamble horribly across generations, especially in terms of slots. This fashion can be seen through sales analysis on the Las Vegas Strip. Despite having a much smaller hobby of gambling, young tourists are heading for Sin City in groups, but they are not spending coins at the casino ground. Currently, less than 37% of all revenue generated on the Strip comes from game revenue. Instead, visitors are enjoying, buying, and enjoying the nightlife. For evaluation, 58% of Las Vegas Inn's revenue came from gambling in the 90s.
Marketing to millennials has proven difficult for gambling companies. For those who do not know, the'millennial' period is used extensively to describe humans born between 1980 and 2000. The past generations have fallen into splendor and charm as casino companies grow, but the millennials have not been very accommodating. , And the hassle of marketing for this generation of buyers is unexpectedly turning into a hot button problem for the gaming industry. With these facts in mind, you can see why basic players in online casino companies are concerned. Preferred millennials don't gamble horribly across generations, especially in terms of slots. This fashion can be seen through sales analysis on the Las Vegas Strip. Despite having a much smaller hobby of gambling, young tourists are heading for Sin City in groups, but they are not spending coins at the casino ground. Currently, less than 37% of all revenue generated on the Strip comes from game revenue. Instead, visitors are enjoying, buying, and enjoying the nightlife. For evaluation, 58% of Las Vegas Inn's revenue came from gambling in the 90s.
Crosspost from wsb Hi everyone, I have started doing weekly valuations and daily market debriefs. What makes me qualified to do this? I work in buyside and get paid to do this. For this week I look at DraftKings, let me know what names you would like me to do next week as well as your feedback. Here is my non-investment advice on DraftKings. What’s new: DKNG reported Quarterly adjusted revenues of $133mn (+42% year-over-year (y/y)), which was at the high-end of the pre-announced $131mn-$133mn range. (link) DKNG also reported adjusted EBITDA of -$197mn, better than Wall St. Consensus expectation of -$203mn. Also with the earnings release, management increased revenue guidance to $540mn to $560mn, and introduced 2021 revenue guidance of $750mn-$850mn (+45% y/y at the midpoint), the consensus estimate was $776mn. This range doesn’t include contributions from Michigan or Virginia, which could both launch online sports betting late this year or early next. Management’s guidance assumes that they continue to operate in all states where they are currently live and announced sport calendars aren’t disrupted. Valuation Methodology: I continue from my initial valuation of DKNG last week – What’s clear is that more states will legalize betting and more Americans will be exposed to sports betting and online gambling avenues and the market will grow overall. What is less clear, however, is how fast this market will grow. I approach this valuation by starting high level, focusing on the growth of online betting markets, and then following with DKNG’s market share of the future betting markets. I believe DKNG is simply a beneficiary of overall online betting market growth, not some standalone idiosyncratic tech pioneer, therefore I believe starting with Total Available Market (TAM) is the best approach for a valuation here. From Deutsche Bank in their updated Note on DKNG ‘Limited Changes to Forecasts’ “We expect the market to continue to trade shares around TAM and growth trajectory views, much of which will be dictated by the pace of legalization and investors garnering a better understanding of how [that] ultimately flows to net revenue and, down the road, EBITDA.” We use 2025 EBITDA as anything beyond five years is simply impossible to predict. Feel free to disagree with me in the comments and tell me why you disagree. I try to keep this analysis high level so we can plug and play growth figures for both the market and DKNG’s share of that future market because analyzing line items or on modelling on revenue multiples, is a pointless exercise for growth companies because appreciating from $500M to $5B is way more likely than $100B to $1trn. This is a rapidly changing company in a disruptive industry and it’s stock price reflects expectations of the future of American online gambling and DraftKings’ ability to capture an increasing share of that market growth. How is the Street valuing DKNG?: Goldman is Neutral rated with a 12-month price target of $53 based on equal parts 2030 EV/EBITDA (discounted), 21.3X 2024 Sales, and a Discounted Cash Flow model. Morgan Stanley is in-line and equal-weighted with a price target of $37 valuing DKNG on a 18.5x 2025 EBITDA model. 18.5X is a comparable tech multiple. Deutsche Bank models DKNG at a price target of $48 on a multiples of 25x 2027 EBITDA, discounted at 5% for 5 years. They note that every 10% move in EBITDA from their current forecast is worth ~$4 to their Price Target and every multiple point is ~$2. Our Model: I start off with management’s 45% y/y growth figure for 2021. I credit DKNG with this growth next year, then crucially, I decrease the growth rate by 5% every year forward, so 40% growth in 22, 35% in 23, etc. because DKNG is starting from a smaller revenue base so 45% will be easier to achieve in 21 than it will be from a higher base in 23. If the online sports betting and gambling markets grow at these rates from 2020-2025 (about a 35% annual growth rate), and DKNG is able to capture a 23% blended total market share of these markets, at a 30% EBITDA margin and 18.5x EBITDA multiplier (we borrow this from MS), I get a valuation of around $39, implying ~9% downside. Let’s look closer: I start off by estimating the online sports betting and gambling market size below. I go off the estimated 2020 figure of around $3.14bn – $1.33bn from sports gambling, $1.5bn from iGaming, and $286mm from Daily Fantasy. Next I grow them by the CAGR’s in the previous paragraph and you see the results. For purposes of this valuation I designate this growth profile as my Base case. I don’t want you to stay fixated on the ~35% CAGR but rather to see the effects of the rate on overall market size come 2025. We can argue all day about the numbers, but trying to estimate the growth of the market to the decimal for 5 years out is not an efficient exercise. This is still a nascent market experiencing a lot of disruption with no clear predecessor case studies. We get a TAM of over $14bn in 2025 with our estimates. Is this a reasonable TAM: Deutsche Bank is a noted Bear on this sort of sports betting TAM Share argument in the 20bn to 25bn range for sports betting. They say in their “A Lot of Unfounded “Expectations” at a Lofty Price; Remain Sell” Note on Penn National, “Said simply, in the period from March 2019 through February 2020, prior to the pandemic, the per adult spend on sports betting (GGNJ adult population) was $51. Given there are 240 mm adults in the US, to arrive at even a $20bn TAM, implied that not only does every state legalize and all 240 mm adults can bet sports on their mobile phones, but that … the adult spend grows by ~65% from this $51 level”. I look at the idea of full legalization and spend per adult in the table below. To get to our $20bn TAM, indeed every US adult would need to be spending $84 a year on sports betting and online gambling. This ties out with DB’s 65% figure. Next I estimate the DraftKings’ EBITDA based on the market size and their share of this future market. An important point is DKNG’s promotions and how much it subtracts from top-line revenue. We use 20% here, but management has stated in the past that promotions are generally in the high 20%’s. We give DKNG credit for being able to continue to decrease promotional activity in the future, so for our 2025 EBITDA analysis we settle on 20%. Just for reference, promotions were ~26% in Q1 and Q2 of this year. I use a healthy 30% EBITDA margin across all levels of market share and market size. As you can see, our Base Case is $785 mm in EBITDA for 2025. Not bad for a company expected to have over negative $400mm in EBITDA for 2020. Finally, given the current stock price of $42.84 at close on 11/13, what is the implied 2025E EBITDA multiple for all these scenarios? Every additional turn in the EBITDA multiple adds ~$2 to our price and every additional $100 mm in 2025 EBITDA adds ~$5. If the market grows by only 15%/ year with lower market share and EBITDA margins in our Bear Case, we get a valuation of $14. Likewise, if the market grows at 45%/year with higher market share and EBITDA margins in our Bull Case, we get a $75 valuation. Upside Risks to Valuation:
Stronger than expected performance in 2021, which could accelerate growth in TAM realizations
Better-than expected margin performance, especially less promotion activity that eats into top-line revenue
DKNG is able to take outsized market share
Favorable regulatory events and large states making progress toward sports betting
Downside Risks to Valuation:
Considerable stock unloaded coming off management lockup agreements from the IPO
TAM expectations becoming more muted, leaving far-out forecasts like the 2025 EBITDA we use being especially vulnerable
Promotional activity could last longer than we think and be a drag on revenue
Greater impact from competitors, leading to decreased market share and/or further necessitated promotional spend
With many states dealing with budget issues right now, its almost certain that states will need to change some policies to bring in more tax dollars. One major tax maker is online gambling. The online casino business is already growing and as more states get on board, this industry will start to explode. NY is currently in talks about legalizing online betting and this can finalize as early as march. It is of my expert and autistic analysis to start pumping money into BETZ. Betz holds the biggest online gambling companies such as draftkings and Penn. i am pretty much certain this etf will explode.
The Global Online Gambling and Betting Market Report 2020-2026 (Forecast Period) Offers An In-Depth Study Of Market Growth Factors, Future Evaluation, Country-Level Analysis, Online Gambling and Betting Market Distribution, And Competitive Landscape Study Of Significant Industry Players. Global Online Gambling & Betting Industry Analysis 2020 Market Growth, Trends, Opportunities Forecast To 2026 To view the original version on ABNewswire visit: Global Online Gambling & Betting Industry Analysis 2020 Market Growth, Trends, Opportunities Forecast To 2026. View Comments and Join the Discussion! We also analyze the industry statistics for the global online gambling industry along with value analysis and an industry segmentation. A forecast for the global online gambling industry till 2023 ... Press release - Wise Guy Research Consultants Pvt Ltd - Global Online Gambling and Betting Industry Analysis 2020 Market Growth, Trends, Opportunities Forecast To 2026 - published on openPR.com The "Analyzing the Global Online Gambling Industry 2021" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. Market Research Report Summary. Global Online Gambling Industry Profile & Value Chain Analysis report is published on May 14, 2018 and has 50 pages in it. This market research report provides information about Gambling, Computer Games, Travel & Leisure industry. F. Global Online Gambling Industry: Analysis of Major Markets F.1 Europe F.2 France F.3 United Kingdom F.4 North America G. Global Online Gambling Industry: Porter's Five Forces Strategy Analysis The global online gambling market size is expected to reach USD 127.3 billion by 2027. Increasing usage of smartphones as a medium of gambling, rising internet penetration, easy access to gambling, and corporate endorsements are some of the major growth factors Key Highlights. – The online gambling industry comprises remote gaming activities by means of the internet, and mobile internet. Its segments include online sports betting, casino games, poker, bingo and social gaming, with the 'other' segment including gambling activities such as lotteries.
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![Sonasoft [$SSFT] Autonomous AI Platform Company: Undervalued and Underrated](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/S_iS9fd30IAGdaJkGmhnB_KgTGLBgWpZYDGfARKwCQs.jpg "Sonasoft [$SSFT] Autonomous AI Platform Company: Undervalued and Underrated")
